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SMR: Asian stock market, economy and companies update (April 22, 2010)
 
- Asian equity markets are trading lower across the board despite the mild gains on Wall St and mixed earnings from the US tech sector. Teradyne and Sandisk reported blowout quarters, however Qualcomm proved to be the kiss of death falling over 8% afterhours despite beating forecasts on poor outlook. Buyers are heading to the exit in droves after two strong sessions, with Nikkei225 falling nearly 2% in late trading. Korea's Kospi, ASX200, and Shanghai Composite are down 1%, while the Taiex is off by 0.5% - still supported by foreign funds in the island's banks being steered toward equities. Ahead of the Thursday US session and expectations of a modest upswing in existing home sales, front-month S&Ps are still down 0.3% at 1,197.

- In primary Asian economic data for today's session, Japan March merchandise trade balance did not help matters, falling short of estimates at ¥949B V ¥1.02TE. Both the headline and the adjusted figures registered a 2-yr high, however more troublesome was a slowdown in overall improvement for exports and imports y/y components. 45.5% increase in exports, below 45.4%e, was the first decline in 8 months, while 20.7% imports was also below 21.1%e and a first drop in 7 months.

SPEAKERS/PRESS
China:
- Concerns over govt efforts to rein in the China property sector bubble continued to weigh over Shanghai markets. Front-page commentary in China Securities Journal warned that delaying policy action risks economic health and social stability. Shanghai Securities News cited the head of CBRC announcing that policymakers will begin to monitor speculative loans on mortgages on the basis of family members rather than that of individual applicants, suggesting that some families cheated to obtain better loans. Another report in the local press noted the banks are becoming increasingly cautious about lending, calling for as much as 60% downpayment for mortgages on 3rd homes, above the 40% requirement. China Center for International Economic Exchange Dep Director Zheng Xinli attempted to soothe the panic, writing in Shanghai Securities News that the China property bubble still in early stages and will not burst in a similar way to that of Japan during 1990's.

Japan:
- Japanese press speculated the central bank may raise its CPI target to 0-0.2% range as part of its semiannual report expected next week. A separate note saw the BOJ potentially boosting its economic growth forecast for FY10/11 at the next policy meeting late next week. Some economists also noted the nation's GDP may have hit 5% in the most recent quarter v 3.8% prior.

Other:
- Taiwan press reported the central bank called on banks to implement additional controls on builders in a sign of housing bubble becoming more prevalent in the region. Singapore's Business Times also cited a warning regarding excessive real-estate lending in the city-state from the IMF. In South Korea, the Knowledge Economy Ministry said the govt has stepped up its consideration of the currency issue, noting that a faster currency gains than other nations is not desirable. In New Zealand, Fin Min English said the economy is growing faster than expected, but still faces headwinds from high NZD.

EQUITIES
- In individual names, Toyota's credit rating was cut one notch by Moody's to Aa2 from Aa1 with negative outlook, anticipating further weakness. Other auto names showed improvement, with Mazda said to have boosted production by resuming nighttime operations and Nissan resuming operations after volcano-ash related supply delays. Also in Japan, Fitch cut long-term foreign and local currency IDRs for Panasonic, and a press report suggested Komatsu's ¥32B op profit would be in line with estimates.

- In Korea, Hyundai Motor reported Q1 Net KRW1.1B v KRW772Be, Op Profit KRW703B v KRW577Be, Rev KRW8.4T v KRW7.8Te, also posting an impressive op margin of 8.3% v 2.5% y/y. Hyundai's market share did appear to slip somewhat, said to be at 4.8% in Q1 v 5.2% in Q4. In tech, Hynix reported Q1 Net KRW817B v KRW629Be, Op Profit KRW747B v KRW657Be, Rev KRW2.8T v KRW2.6Te, with DRAM shipments rising 6% q/q and NAND shipments coming in flat. The company said that tight supply for chips persisted despite prior forecasts of greater balance with demand.

- Australia's largest gold miner, Newcrest said its Q3 gold production declined by 6% q/q to 417K ounces, while its quarterly copper production dropped by 14% sequentially to 20.6K tons. Additionally, Newcrest reaffirmed its FY10 gold production target (1.8-1.9M ounces) and the company expects Q4 output to exceed 500K ounces. Regarding it's A$9.2B offer for Lihir Gold, Newcrest said it has not received confirmation from Lihir about other companies seeking to conduct due diligence on Lihir. It had been previously reported that Lihir might allow other companies to conduct due diligence in a move to get Newcrest to raise its bid. In other earnings news, Australian oil producer Santos said its Q1 output declined by 6% y/y to 12.4 MMBOE. Santos also revised its FY10 production guidance to 49-52 MMBOE from the 41-54 MMBOE range given in Feb.

CURRENCIES/FIXED INCOME/COMMODITIES
- In currencies, the Kiwi dollar outperformed after upbeat Fin Min comments, rising above 0.7110 vs USD and 1.3020 in AUD/NZD, gaining about 30 pips on both. Also in commodity FX, USC/CAD remained below parity around 0.9970 and AUD was near flat on the day around 0.9270. In European majors, EUR/USD traded in 1.3370-3400 range, while Sterling was up a modest 30 pips above 1.5440 ahead of UK retail sales data. Japanese Yen gained, benefiting from risk aversion, as USD/JPY fell below 92.80.

- Crude oil prices are lower and trading near $83.50/bbl. Oil prices are tracking the weakness in the Euro and losses in most Asian equities markets. In terms of oil market news, on yesterday's session the US Department of Energy reported that weekly crude and gasoline inventories were higher than expectations (DOE CRUDE: +1.9M V -500KE; GASOLINE: +3.6M V +500KE). As of the time of writing, gold prices are little changed as markets continue to focus on the upcoming EU/IMF meeting on Greece.

ECONOMIC DATA
- (JP) JAPAN MAR MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE TOTAL: ¥949B V ¥1.02TE; ADJUSTED: ¥666B V ¥603BE (2-yr high for both measures)
- (AU) Australia MAR RBA FX Transaction: A$892M v A$424M prior
- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAR NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: -2.7 V -1.9% PRIOR; y/y: 19.2% v 17.3% prior
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 121.9 V 121.8 PRIOR; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE M/M: 0.0% V -1.5% PRIOR
- (SL) Sri Lanka Central Bank leaves Repurchase Rate unchanged at 7.50% as expected
- (TH) THAILAND MAR CUSTOMS TRADE BALANCE: $1.2B V $615ME; CUSTOM EXPORTS Y/Y: 40.9% V 33.2%E; Custom Imports Y/Y: 59.7% v 57.3%e
- (JP) JAPAN MAR SUPERMARKET SALES Y/Y: -6.6% V -2.4% PRIOR
Source