All of the foreign currencies futures open lower in the US, but at different rates. Both the euro and the Swiss franc have bounced from new lows of their down moves on news that Greece is finally asking to activate the EU/IMF aid package; the market was forced to take some profit on their large short positions. It didn’t hurt that the Ifo survey found the business climate in Germany to have risen more than expected. Meanwhile, the commodity currencies fell the most; the Aussie was hurt by the prospect that the RBA will pause in its tightening cycle and the loonie tumbled on a low domestic inflation report. The North American agenda features the US durable goods orders and new home sales, and Canada’s retail sales. The Asia/Pacific stock markets closed down, the European bourses are up, oil is up and gold down. The US stock indexes are higher in pre-open market. The above developments changed the short-term outlook to slightly bullish for the European currencies and slightly bearish for the commodity currencies and the yen. The medium-term outlook is bearish for the euro, Swiss franc and yen, sideways for the pound, and bullish for the commodity currencies. My model is short across the board. Look for updates on my model’s positions on Twitter: They are free – for now. Then, you will have to subscribe to get the model turns in advance.

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