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BLBG: Futures Traders Boost Bets on Euro Drop Versus Dollar to Record
 
By Oliver Biggadike and Ben Levisohn

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Futures traders increased bets to a record that the euro will fall against the dollar two days after European leaders announced a 110 billion-euro ($140 billion) bailout package for Greece on speculation the aid wouldn’t be enough to halt the spread of the region’s fiscal woes.

The number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators for a decline in the 16-nation currency rose on May 4 to 103,402 contracts more than those anticipating a gain, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. It was the second consecutive week that the amount climbed to a record.

“The fiscal side of the euro zone is such a mess and it’s not clear what would happen if crises flare up in other countries,” said Sacha Tihanyi, a foreign-exchange strategist in Toronto at Bank of Nova Scotia, Canada’s third-largest lender. “It’s hard to draw the line in the sand and say here’s where you go long the euro. I don’t see anything to suggest we’re at a bottom.”

The euro fell the most against the dollar this week since the collapse of global credit markets in 2008 as the European Central Bank failed to ease concern that Greece’s fiscal crisis would intensify across the region.

Europe’s common currency fell 4 percent to $1.2755 this week. The euro gained 1 percent today on speculation the ECB may come to the aid of banks threatened by Greece’s crisis in an effort to halt contagion.

Each Friday the CFTC publishes aggregate numbers for long and short positions for speculators such as hedge funds and institutional investors that buy or sell futures to protect against price moves. Analysts and investors follow changes in speculators’ positions because such transactions can reflect an expectation of a change in prices. Futures are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set price and date.

To contact the reporters on this story: Oliver Biggadike in New York at obiggadike@bloomberg.net; Ben Levisohn in New York at blevisohn@bloomberg.net

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