BLBG: Soybeans, Corn, Wheat Climb as Weather May Delay China Planting
By Luzi Ann Javier
May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Soybean futures advanced, ending the longest losing streak since January, and corn and wheat gained on concern cooler weather may delay planting in China.
Soybeans for July delivery added as much as 0.4 percent to $9.435 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and were at $9.395 a bushel at 2:52 p.m. in Singapore, ending five days of losses, the longest slump for the most-active contract since Jan. 12. Corn rose 0.3 percent to $3.6075 a bushel and wheat gained 0.4 percent to $4.695 a bushel.
Rain and cooler conditions will slow soybean, corn and spring wheat planting progress and early development of crops in northeast China in the three days from May 18, Telvent DTN Inc. said in a forecast yesterday. Some heavy rain may also disrupt planting of corn in Ukraine and Russia, it said.
“We’re dealing with mother-nature,” Peter McGuire, managing director at CWA Global Markets Pty Ltd., said by phone from Sydney today. “If we’re expecting too much rain, that will mean delay going into the planting season, which in turn can affect harvest.”
China is the world’s biggest soybean importer, the largest wheat consumer and second-largest corn user, while Ukraine is the world’s fourth-largest corn shipper, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Rapeseed Down
The Asian nation’s rapeseed output may fall below 10 million tons this year, the lowest level since 2007, because of poor weather, Li Qiang, managing director at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., said today.
Rapeseed production may decline by 800,000 tons and 1 million tons, the China National Grain & Oils Information said in a report today. Lower rapeseed output may curb China’s oilseed and vegetable oil supplies.
Corn for September delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose as much as 0.8 percent to 1,963 yuan ($287) a ton, the highest price for the most-active contract since May 2008. The contract ended at 1,961 yuan a ton.
Corn futures for December delivery in Chicago may plunge 14 percent to $3.25 a bushel in October from yesterday’s close of $3.785 as early planting and a jump in acreage improve U.S. crop prospects, said Bill Nelson, a senior economist for Doane Agricultural Services Co. said at a client conference yesterday.
The USDA estimates 87 percent of the corn crop was planted as of May 16, compared with 61 percent a year earlier. Farmers may end up planting 89.8 million acres because of the fast start, from 88.8 million acres forecast in March, Nelson said.
The U.S., the world’s largest grower and exporter of corn, accounts for 41 percent of global output and 58 percent of world trade of the grain this year, according to the USDA.
Higher Yields
About 67 percent of the crop was in good or excellent condition as of May 16, based on the first rating of the season. That is above the first-week average of 66 percent since 1985, which means average U.S. yields may reach 164 bushels an acre, above last week’s USDA forecast of 163.5 bushels, Nelson said.
“The weather has been incredibly kind” to U.S. farmers, CWA’s McGuire said. “Those factors are coming into play to suggest that it could be an absolutely outstanding season. Yields are going to go up and prices will come down.”
Wheat for July delivery dropped to a six-week low of $4.66 a bushel yesterday. Futures for December delivery may drop 13 percent $4.50 a bushel in Chicago by October, from yesterday’s price of $5.165, as rising world production reduces demand for U.S. exports, said Nelson.
China’s wheat output this year may remain “basically flat” at 110 million tons, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said today in a report.
U.S. wheat inventories before the 2011 harvest may rise to the highest since 1988 on falling exports, Nelson said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net