RTRS: Shanghai copper rises ahead of holiday, LME steady
* China output rises; producer inflation high, peaking
* Growth seen slowing, but no double dip
* Technical outlook bright for copper [TECH/C]
* Coming Up; U.S. retail sales for May: 1230 GMT
(Updates prices, adds details)
By Nick Trevethan
SINGAPORE, June 11 (Reuters) - Shanghai copper futures
rallied 1.5 percent on Friday ahead of a three-day holiday next
week, chasing gains in London which edged higher after data
from China and India.
Commodities as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB .CRB
have rallied 2.5 percent in the past three days on upward
revisions of Japanese growth rates, strong Chinese exports, a
successful Spanish bond auction and a fall in initial U.S.
jobless claims.
The latest numbers to exercise investor minds were Chinese
inflation and output data, and output data from India.
"I don't think we need to worry about China. Output is
robust, exports are very strong and they are still buying raw
materials on the world market," a dealer in Singapore said.
"Inflation is high but the view seems to be that it has
peaked. Growth rates will slow some, but it doesn't look like
demand will come crashing down around our ears."
Copper output showed a 17.8 percent rise to 398,000 tonnes
in May from the previous year, which traders said when taken
with falling inventories in London and Shanghai exchange
warehouses and stable imports, suggested demand remained firm
in the Middle Kingdom.
China's consumer inflation accelerated to a 19-month high
in the year to May, while industrial output and fixed-asset
investment growth moderated, sending mixed signals about the
temperature of the world's third-largest economy.
[ID:nTOE65907H]
For a graphics suite of Chinese macro data:
here
"PPI may have peaked in May. CPI may still move up a little
bit further in June or July due to a low base, but it is
obvious that inflation pressure in China has greatly eased,"
said Zhang Lei, an economist with Bohai Securities in Tianjin.
"The overall economy will see a modest slowdown as well,
but there won't be a sharp decline in growth. In other words,
the possibility of a double-dip is very small."
India's industrial output INIP=ECI rose by a
faster-than-expected 17.6 percent in April from a year earlier
on strong consumer demand and government spending.
[ID:nBMA007791]
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3
ticked up by $5 to $6,415 a tonne by 0711 GMT. Copper rallied
1.1 percent, or $70, in the previous session when it touched
its highest in almost a week, at $6,446. On the week, copper is
on track for a 2.2 percent rise, it biggest since early April.
"The data flow we have been seeing has been very positive
and recent price corrections have not been matched by a
deterioration in the numbers," Barclays Capital analyst Yingxi
Yu said.
"Thursday's trade data showed that the environment in China
is positive and the excess supply people have worried about
might not be as bad as they think. We see signs that copper
imports may surprise on the upside for the year."
Benchmark third-month Shanghai copper SCFc3 rose 1.5
percent to close at 51,450 yuan, ending the week 3 percent
weaker.
Other Shanghai metals also gained -- zinc SZNc3 and
aluminium SAFc3 both rose more than 1 percent, while output
data showed production of aluminium hit a record 1.416 million
tonnes in May over 1.37 million tonnes in April.
May output surpassed the previous record seen in December
last year. [ID:nTOE65907H]
The Shanghai Futures Exchange said it will temporarily
raise its minimum margin requirement and extend trading bands
on all futures contracts around the three-day Dragon Boat
Festival at the weekend. [ID:nTOE65906V]
In industry news, Mexican miners clashed briefly with
federal police on Thursday at the Cananea copper mine, raising
tensions which could complicate owner Grupo Mexico's efforts to
reopen the pit after breaking a nearly three-year-long strike.
[ID:nN10264269]
Longer-term supply may also be threatened after news
emerged that a province in the Philippines is almost certain to
ban open pit mining due to environmental concerns, threatening
development of one of Southeast Asia's richest copper-gold
mines. [ID:nSGE6590LL]
Base metals prices at 0711 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 YTD pct
chg
LME Cu 6415.00 5.00 +0.08 7375.00
-13.02
SHFE Cu* 51450.00 760.00 +1.50 59900.00
-14.11
LME Alum 1955.00 6.00 +0.31 2230.00
-12.33
SHFE Alum* 14565.00 160.00 +1.11 17160.00
-15.12
COMEX Cu** 285.55 0.00 +0.00 332.75
-14.18
LME Zinc 1740.00 20.00 +1.16 2560.00
-32.03
SHFE Zinc 14295.00 175.00 +1.24 21195.00
-32.55
LME Nickel 18950.00 5.00 +0.03 18525.00
2.29
LME Lead 1690.00 6.00 +0.36 2432.00
-30.51
LME Tin 16500.00 -150.00 -0.90 16950.00
-2.65
LME/Shanghai arb^ -184
Dollar/yuan 6.8304 \ 6.8310
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month
(Editing by Himani Sarkar)