LONDON June 29 (Reuters) - Copper fell 3 percent on Tuesday and appears set for a 15 percent fall in the second quarter as worries about economic recovery weighed on market sentiment. "The increase in risk aversion -- especially in China -- is dragging on prices," said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank. "Economic recovery worldwide should continue, but the pace of this recovery will decrease substantially in the second half of the year." The benchmark Shanghai Composite .SSEC ended down 4.3 percent at a 14-month closing low. China is the world's top metals consumer and helped push copper prices up 140 percent last year. Weinberg added that downward pressure may also come in the next few weeks ahead of the traditional summer lull, when many factories and consumers close for the holiday season and industrial metal demand falls. Also on the radar, Europe's financial crisis remains a concern for investors as banks are due to repay nearly half a trillion euros to the European Central Bank on Thursday, leaving a potential liquidity shortfall in the financial system of over 100 billion euros. [ID:nLDE65R0LE] These concerns boosted the dollar, adding to the pressure on metals prices ahead of what are expected to be weak U.S. non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. [USD/] "The recent economic data in the U.S. wasn't too convincing, but we still expect the economy to recover strongly," said Weinberg. "It is important to see how much of this is already priced in. I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong reaction downside, should the numbers surprise negatively, than to the upside should they surprise positively," he added. PRICES * Three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange was at $6,673 a tonne by 0721 GMT compared with Monday's close of $6,869 per tonne, which amounts to a drop of about 14.7 percent so far in the quarter. Aluminium CMAL3 was $36 lower at $1,993. DATA/EVENTS * UK consumer credit for May at 0830 GMT. * UK mortgage applications for May at 0830 GMT. * UK mortgage lending for May at 0830 GMT. * Eurozone business climate index for June at 0900 GMT. * ICSC/Goldman Sachs weekly U.S. chain store sales at 1145 GMT. * Redbook weekly U.S. retail sales at 1255 GMT. * U.S. consumer confidence for June at 1400 GMT. * ABC U.S. weekly consumer comfort index at 2100 GMT. * UK Gfk survey for June at 2301 GMT. [ECI/US] [ECI/EURO] [ECI/GB] [M/DIARY] [MTL/DIARY] MARKET NEWS * Asian stocks were on course for their worst quarterly performance since the end of 2008 as the tepid nature of recovery from global recession keeps investors on the defensive. [MKTS/GLOB] * The euro extended losses against the yen as funding concerns in the euro zone and a fall in Asian stocks prompted investors to sell the single European currency, while Japanese exporters repatriated their overseas profits before the second quarter ends. [USD/] * Oil fell 0.9 percent to below $78 as forecasts indicated tropical storm Alex would skirt the main production region in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, limiting disruption there to a few precautionary shutdowns. [O/R] U.S. stocks ended slightly lower on Monday as gains in consumer-related stocks, including tobacco shares, were offset by losses in the energy sector. [.N] * Japan's industrial output fell 0.1 percent in May after two straight month of gains, suggesting the benefits of a rebound in exports to fast-growing Asian economies may be moderating. [ID:nTOE65R07R] FUNDAMENTALS * New Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard expressed confidence on Tuesday she would end a damaging mining tax row, while speculation grows she may call an election within weeks to capitalise on her honeymoon period as leader. [ID:nSGE65R0KZ] * Russian aluminium giant RUSAL (0486.HK) boycotted the election of a chairman at miner Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.MM) on Monday after winning one fewer seat on the Norilsk board than co-owner Interros. [ID:nN28272122] * Japan's refined zinc exports for May fell 39 percent from a year earlier to 8,717 tonnes, with Taiwan accounting for the largest share of export volume, Ministry of Finance data showed on Tuesday. [ID:nTOE65S04S] * South Korea's LS Nikko Copper offered the lowest bid for a tender closed late on Monday by the state-run Public Procurement Service (PPS) seeking to buy 3,000 tonnes of grade-A copper cathode, the procurement agency said on Tuesday. [ID:nTOE65R021] * Peru, one of the world's leading mineral exporters, said on Monday its output of copper and gold fell in May from the same month a year ago. [ID:nN28273530] TECHNICALS * Copper support at $6,479, resistance $6,885, and 14-day RSI at 51.9. * Aluminium support at $1,970, resistance at $2,043, and 14-day RSI 53.0. (Reporting by Michael Taylor; editing by Jane Baird)

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