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BS: Oil Rises, Heading for Monthly Gain, on Forecast of Supply Drop
 
By Grant Smith

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Oil rose for the first time in three days in New York, heading for a monthly increase before a report forecast to show crude inventories declined in the U.S., the world’s largest energy-user.

“Today’s Energy Department data may help prices,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. “While the supply picture does not support crude in the short term, demand is becoming a bit better. Much depends on risk aversion, so if equity markets recover crude will go up as well.”

Oil for August delivery was at $76.15 a barrel, up 21 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:42 a.m. London time. The contract earlier fell as much as 0.8 percent to $75.33. Brent crude for August delivery was unchanged at $75.44 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Oil has lost 9.1 percent since the end of March and 4 percent this year. The contract sank to this year’s low of $64.24 on May 20 and has risen 2.9 percent so far this month. The Dollar Index, a measure against six major currencies, fell for the first time in three days on concern economic growth may falter.

OPEC Output

OPEC production slipped 157,000 barrels, or 0.5 percent, to an average 29.23 million barrels a day, according to the survey. Output by members with quotas, all except Iraq, dropped 122,000 barrels to 26.865 million, 2.02 million above their target.

Alex became the first June Atlantic hurricane since 1995 as oil and gas companies in the Gulf of Mexico evacuated offshore workers and prepared for possible storm surges that may affect coastal refineries. The Gulf Coast is home to 43 percent of operable U.S. refining capacity, according to the Energy Department.

The storm, with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles (120 kilometers) per hour, was 255 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, and heading west at 9 mph, according to a U.S. National Hurricane Center advisory posted just before 11 p.m. Miami time yesterday. The center of Alex will approach the coast of northeast Mexico or southern Texas today as it makes landfall.

U.S. Stockpiles

U.S. crude inventories dropped 3.4 million barrels last week, according to a report yesterday from the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute.

“Everyone understands now that it will take more time than expected for the economy of America to get better,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge Group in Tokyo.

The Energy Department will release its weekly report on demand and supply at 10:30 a.m. local time in Washington D.C.

Distillate fuel supplies, including diesel and heating oil, rose 3.9 million barrels to 158.7 million, the API said. Gasoline stockpiles fell 908,000 barrels to 220.2 million.

Oil-supply totals from the API and Energy Department moved in the same direction 75 percent of the time over the past four years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Crude supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the New York futures, dropped by 1.9 million barrels to 36 million, the biggest decline since the week of Sept. 11, according to the API.

--Editors: John Buckley, Stephen Cunningham

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss on sev@bloomberg.net

Source