WSJ: OIL FUTURES Nymex Crude Up Slightly, Shaky Recovery Weighs
By Jerry A. DiColo Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures rose slightly Wednesday, though low volume and an uncertain economic outlook prevented the market from seeing bigger gains.
Light, sweet crude for August delivery recently traded 95 cents, or 1.3%, higher at $72.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded $1.05, or 1.5%, higher at $72.50 a barrel.
The oil market is in a period of consolidation, with prices unlikely to move dramatically in either direction until traders have a better read on how badly the U.S. economic recovery is sputtering, analysts said. Prices have tumbled nearly 8% since June 25, but have not closed below $70 a barrel since May.
With few important economic indicators expected this week, volume in oil futures remains light. Open interest, the number of outstanding contracts, is close to its low for the year.
"Lack of interest is becoming the headline," said Carl Larry, an analyst with Oil Outlooks and Opinions. "Unfortunately, until we see something solid, an economic recovery or indications that we're not going to have a double dip (recession), nobody wants to get back into the water."
The market is awaiting the EIA's weekly oil inventory data, delayed until 11 a.m. EDT Thursday by the Independence Day holiday. High U.S. inventories have put downward pressure on oil prices, signaling that demand was struggling to recover fully from last year's downturn, even when economic growth looked to be outpacing expectations.
Crude oil inventories are expected to fall by 1.8 million barrels, according to a survey of six analysts by Dow Jones Newswires, after hurricane Alex disrupted some oil-production and imports in the Gulf of Mexico last week.
Currently, a weather system off the Yucatan Peninsula has around a 40% chance of strengthening into a named storm, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Meanwhile, gasoline inventories are seen dropping by 100,000 barrels in the EIA report, according to the analysts' average, while stocks of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 1.7 million barrels.
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, will publish its weekly inventory statistics later Wednesday.
However, the inventory reports have often taken a back seat in the oil market to investors' expectations about the broader economy. Movements in equities markets and the value of the dollar have played a bigger role, said Kyle Cooper, an analyst with IAF Energy Advisors.
"It's just going to be what the dollar and the equities do," said Kyle Cooper, an analyst with IAF Energy Advisors. "The weekly petroleum data, regardless of whether they come out with builds or large draws, it's not going to be a primary driver."
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened slightly higher, up 0.1% at 9748.8, though the ICE Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, rose to 84.375, from 84.280. A stronger dollar can force the price of oil lower by making the commodity more expensive to buy using other currencies.
Front-month August reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded 2.89 cents, or 1.5%, higher at $2.0002 a gallon. August heating oil recently traded 3.80 cents, or 2%, higher at $1.9552 a gallon.
-By Jerry A. DiColo, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2155; jerry.dicolo@dowjones.com.