By Jason Womack Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures fluctuated Monday as traders weighed forecasts for hot weather in the coming weeks against robust natural gas inventories. Natural gas for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange recently traded 1.1 cents, or 0.25%, lower at $4.391 a million British thermal units. The front-month contract has so far traded within a narrow 10-cent range. Natural gas prices have remained under pressure, falling about 6% over the last week, as the market eyed rising gas inventories, despite forecasts for above normal temperatures. "It would appear that concerns over excess production are still at the forefront of many trading opinions," Jim Ritterbusch, president of the energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates, wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Natural gas in U.S. storage for the week ended July 2 stood at 2.762 trillion cubic feet--0.8% less than last year and 11.5% above the five-year average, according to the federal Energy Information Administration. Inventories of the fuel have swelled this year as producers continue to extract gas from prolific offshore fields known as shales. Last week, oil field services provider Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) said the natural gas rig count rose by four rigs to 964. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas has been relatively stable in recent weeks. However, the rig count has jumped about 43% from a year ago. Meanwhile, weather forecasts were providing some support for prices. Meteorologists with the private forecasting firm Commodity Weather Group see above-normal temperatures across a large swath of the nation over the next two weeks. The forecasters predict above-normal temperatures across the Midwest, the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast and Southeast from July 22 to July 26. Hot weather can boost demand for natural gas-fired power to cool homes and businesses and slow the rate at which gas is injected into storage. "It's going to be pretty hot in most parts of the country," said Tom Saal, a senior vice president of energy trading with Hencorp Becstone Futures in Miami. -By Jason Womack, Dow Jones Newswires; 713-547-9201; jason.womack@dowjones.com

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