BLBG: U.S. Futures Rise; Forint Drops on IMF Talks, Irish Bonds Fall
U.S. index futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rebound from its biggest sell-off this month. The forint weakened and the cost of insuring Hungarian debt surged as deficit-reduction talks with the International Monetary Fund broke down.
Futures on the S&P 500 gained 0.3 percent at 10:36 a.m. in London, after the U.S. benchmark index tumbled 1.9 percent July 16. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.2 percent. The forint weakened 2.3 percent versus the euro and Hungary’s BUX Index declined 2.4 percent. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, fell for the fifth consecutive day, its longest run of declines since January. Irish bonds dropped after Moody’s Investors Service lowered the nation’s rating one step.
Twenty of the 23 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly earnings since July 12 have beaten analysts’ estimates, according to Bloomberg data. Halliburton Co., International Business Machines Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc. announce results today.
“After taking a battering for much of Friday’s session, there are signs of stability returning to the U.S. indices ahead of the open,” said Anthony Grech, head of research at IG Index in London. “Earnings season continues and today’s main event for traders is IBM’s latest set of numbers.”
The gain in U.S. futures indicated the S&P 500 may pare some of its July 16 drop, the biggest decline this month. IBM rose to $128.30 from $128.03 in German trading, while Texas Instruments traded at $24.82 from a close of $24.77 on July 16.
U.S. Housing Market
The National Association of Home Builders Market Index probably fell to 16 this month from 17 in June, according to a survey of economists before the report due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Data due later this week may show housing starts dropped for a second month in June, while existing home sales tumbled 9.9 percent from the previous month, according to surveys of economists.
Almost two stocks rose for every one that declined in Europe’s Stoxx 600 index. Tomkins Plc surged 34 percent after saying it may get a takeover offer, and International Power Plc jumped the most since 2008 after entering talks to combine some assets with GDF Suez SA. BP Plc dropped 2.9 percent after a person familiar with the matter said talks to sell half the company’s stake Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay oil field to Apache Corp. stalled. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8 percent, its third straight decline.
Credit-default swaps on Hungarian government debt jumped 45.5 basis points to 362, the highest level since June 8, according to data provider CMA. The IMF and European Union declined to endorse Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s plans to control the budget deficit as part of a 20 billion-euro ($25.8 billion) emergency bailout because “a range of issues remain open,” the Washington-based lender said in a July 17 statement. The government must make “tough decisions, notably on spending,” to comply with deficit requirements, the EU said.
Irish Bond Risk
Default swaps on Irish government debt jumped 17 basis points to 266, according to CMA, the highest level since June 30. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of default swaps on 15 governments increased 5.5 basis points to 140, the biggest one-day rise in three weeks, CMA data show.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined for a third day, losing 0.6 percent. The South Korean won fell 1 percent against the dollar and India’s rupee lost 0.5 percent, leading Asian currencies lower after a private report last week showed confidence among American consumers dropped to an 11-month low in July, worsening the outlook for regional exports.
Dollar Weakens
The Dollar Index, which measures the currency against the euro, the yen, the pound, the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar and the Swedish krona, fell 0.1 percent to 82.398, bringing its decline during the streak to 2.1 percent. The euro climbed 0.3 percent to $1.2969 amid concern the U.S. economic recovery may be faltering. The 16-nation currency appreciated 0.7 percent to 112.72 yen.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose one basis point to 2.94 percent after the yield slid eight basis points at the end of last week. The yield on the two-year German note increased two basis points to 0.80 percent, while the similar-maturity gilt yield also climbed two basis points, to 0.75 percent.
Copper for delivery in three months advanced 0.9 percent to $6,541 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, the first increase in three sessions. Tin led gains on the LME, rising 1.4 percent. Crude oil for August delivery dropped 7 cents to $75.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the fourth consecutive decline.
To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net