The Recession is NOT Over Yet. And This is Why For those who promptly follow the news and analyze them can undoubtedly notice the flaws of recovery. In China, recovery is slowing. In Japan, there is uncertainty, instability and possible deflation. In Europe, there is Portugal, Spain, in addition to Greece, and the Banking systems. In North America, and apart from confusing Canada, the economy of the United States is still fighting to recover. Stock markets jitter, commodity prices swing up and down, and Foreign Exchange rates can not stabilize. For odd reasons also, crude oil and gold prices now go up and down together! How more odd can such portrait of the world economy be? The distortion of the economy across the globe continues to overshadow the good news of growth. Rising tensions within the social fabric across the nations is developing a perfect climate for crime and rebellion. Where there is no mass of middle class, there is no stability. The United States Economy Needs More And Deeper Overhaul The US Banking system reform regulation was a good move. However, it will not be enough if taken alone. More steps are needed to establish an ethical system across the business life in America. In essence, the whole American dream is at risk due to unemployment, bankruptcy, poor funding and lack of confidence. Even the richest of all states, California, now lying wounded under the debris of the economic crisis. The aging infrastructure, changing face of demographics, and the climatic transformation are three major threats to the US economic recovery. Furthermore, the Middle Class which had been hit hard by the downturn of the economic cycle, can not regain its strength and social status easily. The foreclosures had created serious class imbalances and deserted towns and cities. It pushed families into separation, homelessness and poverty. Have you seen Detroit lately? China And Japan Can Lead Asian Economies, With Difficulty China and Japan can lead Asian economies jointly. But this is tough. China now struggles with its own domestic economic growth. It is in conflict with the rest of the G8 over the Yuwan value also. At the same time it is fighting a severe internal battle also to upgrade the infrastructure. It is also working to improve the quality of life in its own towns and cities to become fit for the fast growing middle class population. For all such reasons it seems China will be focusing more in the near future on its internal issues. Such focus will help transform the growth into domestic-led rather than export led. Such process will probably take twenty years to be completed. On the other hand Japan the mighty economic power is shivering in the face of its worst nightmare. A political-economic limbo in a double-trouble scenario that may cripple the nation and throw it’s prosperity into the flames of deflation. To worsen matters for Japan, while Chinese population gets younger, Japan’s population gets older. Can they work together? They will have to. Germany, UK, And France: The Confused Musketeers of Europe. It is evident beyond hiding. The conflict between the three economic pillars in Europe is just too obvious. The difference in language, faith and national history reflects on the school of thought to which each country belong to. Despite common currency and one parliament, Europe has a long way to march before it becomes one physical body. On the contrary, European scholars are already addressing the virtues of Europe’s disintegration on economic renaissance. If such happens, than fragmented Euro Zone will always struggle for common goal and common leadership. For the time being, the Euro Zone will have to focus on the pains of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and other neighbors. With pension age increased to 70, social benefits cut deeply, and public services are being limited, Europe can lose it global edge. Solutions are conflicted. What is good for one European nation, is not necessarily good for all. As the argument within the European house continues, Europe must chart its way to novel and stable future. Year 2011: Another Turbulent Year Banks in the grandest twenty economies owe more than three trillion United States Dollars. By year 2011, they have to pay to continue play. Otherwise, the consequences for the global economy are ugly. In 2009 more than 160 banks went bankrupt in USA, and by now over 90 others have vanished also. As we continue to lose banks and money, we surrender the lifeline of business and life altogether. BASEL III changed the rules upon which banks will operate globally. More banks want to implement the safe and strict Canadian bank regulations, customized to their own way. This means the general public will face increased difficulty to access new capital by time. The public will probably strive to access or protect their savings. In clearer words, the cash crunch and the strict banking regulations undermine global recovery. Such conditions degrade the net disposable income across 80% demographic sectors in any nation. The not so-rich and not-famous (by media standards), will spend only for food, shelter, and utilities. No extras. Alas! MENA Region: Which Way Amidst Turmoil The continued political and economic disturbances had not provided the MENA region with a fair opportunity to make significant growth. Unlike China, Japan, or even Taiwan, the MENA is not known for stuff other than crude oil and olive oil. Apart from Abu Dhabi and Dubai, there are not so remarkable MENA accomplishments for the last twenty years. As the world enters into a grey and stormy economic climates, the heads of states in MENA needs to act fast. More than 70% of their population is below 45 years of age. A young and dynamic unemployed workforce is a recipe for civil unrest and crime. The way out of the vicious cycle is through Public-Private Partnership (P3/PPP) projects. This is where cash capital get together to make a difference in life. On the top list of all projects there is: power and water, agri-food plantations, domestic energy, housing, education, health, and telecommunication. All that infrastructure is vital and is a priority. Timing is of essence. Frankly speaking, MENA has not time.

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