The foreign currencies futures consolidated in the Far East after the European and commodity currencies flexed muscle on Monday. The Asia/Pacific stock markets followed in the footsteps of the US indexes and advanced, while the gold/oil spread slipped.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish for most of the European and commodity currencies and mildly bearish for the yen. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish for most of the foreign currencies futures. My model is long all of the foreign currencies futures.
This analysis is based on my books, as follows:
“Trading in the Global Currency Markets” - Prentice Hall Press, 3rd edition 2007
“Technical Analysis Applications” - McGraw-Hill, 2004
Overnight:
• Australia: Retail sales for June
• Australia: Building approvals for June
• Australia: RBA to leave its cash target unchanged
• Japan: The monetary base rose 6.1% on year in July following a 3.6% annual increase in June.
Today’s economic calendar:
• Eurozone: PPI for June
• UK: PMI Construction for July
EUR- March
Luca Model: Long since July 22
The overbought September euro remained firm in the Far East after surging to a three-month high on Monday. The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The uptrend high is 1.3195. The next cap is 1.3275.
Immediate support is 1.3106. Strong support is 1.3015. The 100-day moving average supports at 1.2925.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
The September Japanese yen marked time in Asia after closing marginally down on Monday. The yen is resting on the median of its rising channel. The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is at 114.97. Below 114.60, the 21-day moving average supports at 114.39.
Monday’s high is 115.87. The high of the uptrend is 116.03. Further resistance is at 116.55 and 117.06.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish (Bearish divergence)
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
GBP - March
Luca Model: Long since July 23
The September pound didn’t lose any ground in the Far East after soaring to a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The short-term is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5904. Further resistance follows at 1.5962 and 1.6018.
Initial support is at 1.5844. The next floor is 1.5794. Below 1.5725, distant support is at 1.5644.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
The September Swiss franc was quiet in Asia after reaching a new high for the uptrend on Monday. The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model went promptly long.
The new high of the uptrend is .9668. The next resistance levels are .9721 and .9779.
Immediate support is .9556. Below .9532, the next floor is .9483 from the 21-day moving average.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bullish
The September Canadian dollar made no progress in the Far East after rallying to a near 1 ˝-month high the day before. The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial resistance is at .9795. Further resistance is at .9837. A pivot high is at .9857.
Immediate support is at .9736. The next floor is .9700. Below .9660, the 21-day moving average supports at .9638.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
The overbought September Australian dollar slipped in Asia after advancing to a new high for the uptrend on Monday. It remains on track for the target of its bullish flag targeting the .9220 area. The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate support is at .9023. The next floor is at .8954. Below .8907, distant support is at .8851.
Initial resistance is at .9102. Distant resistance lies at .9219.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
