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BLBG: Korean Won May Strengthen 5% by Month’s End: Technical Analysis
 
Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s won may strengthen an additional 5 percent this month after breaking through a key resistance level at the end of last week, according to Okasan Securities Co.

The won may reach 1,144.15 per dollar within “a week or two” and 1,102.85 by the end of this month, according to Tsutomu Soma, a bonds and foreign-exchange dealer at Okasan. He said the currency’s Aug. 6 breach of its 200-day moving average points to further appreciation and cited a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence to support his forecasts.

“The 200-day moving average is quite an important level to watch, which is not too often taken out,” Tokyo-based Soma said. “The won is on a long-term, bullish trend now.”

The won gained 0.3 percent to 1,158.46 per dollar as of 12:06 p.m. in Seoul, extending this month’s advance to 2.1 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s headed for a seventh straight gain, the longest winning streak in five months, and today touched a 12-week high of 1,155.75.

The last time the won appreciated beyond its 200-day moving average was on April 30, 2009 and the currency strengthened 2.2 percent in the following month.

An exchange rate of 1,144.15 would mark a 76.4 percent recovery of the won’s decline from 1,102.85 on April 26, the strongest level since September 2008, to this year’s low of 1,277.85 on May 25. Other key levels on Fibonacci charts are 23.6 percent, 38.2 percent, 50 percent, 61.8 percent and 100 percent, which Soma’s end-August projection is based on. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

--Editors: James Regan, Simon Harvey

%KRW

To contact the reporters on this story: Yumi Teso in Bangkok at yteso1@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Regan at jregan19@bloomberg.net.
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