BLBG: Australian Dollar Trades Near 3-Month High on U.S. Rate Outlook
Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar traded near a three-month high against the greenback as signs the U.S. economy is slowing fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero into next year.
Demand for the so-called Aussie increased before a report forecast to show the cost of living in the U.S. is slowing. Traders cut bets to 4 percent the Fed will increase its benchmark rate by December, from 15 percent a month earlier, according to CME Group Inc. futures. New Zealand’s currency was little changed after South Pacific nation’s house prices rose at the slowest annual pace since December.
“There is strong concern for the fate of the U.S. economy, spurring speculation the Fed will step up stimulus measures,” said Daisaku Ueno, Tokyo-based president at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd., a unit of Japan’s largest currency margin trading company. “This view adds to selling pressure on the U.S. currency” versus its major counterparts, he said.
The Australian dollar traded at 91.88 U.S. cents as of 4 p.m. in Sydney from 91.83 cents in New York on Aug. 6 when it climbed to 92.22 U.S. cents, the strongest since May 4. The currency was at 78.59 yen from 78.52 yen.
The New Zealand dollar bought at 73.26 cents from 73.35, and was little changed at 62.74 yen.
Years of Unemployment
The U.S. economy faces years of little or no growth, high unemployment and deleveraging, Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview with Chile’s La Tercera newspaper.
Industrial economies will continue to face “headwinds” while the largest emerging markets develop, La Tercera cited El- Erian as saying.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell 131,000 last month, the Labor Department said Aug. 6, more than 65,000 drop forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The jobless rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent.
Futures traders increased bets Australia’s currency will gain against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in Australia’s dollar compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 48,715 Aug. 3, compared with net longs of 40,533 a week earlier.
Federal Reserve policy makers next meet on Aug. 10. They have kept the benchmark interest rate at a record low range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008 to spur economic growth.
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark rate unchanged last week at 4.5 percent.
House Price
New Zealand’s dollar fell against most of its major counterparts after an industry report showed house prices rose at the slowest pace since December, undermining prospects the central bank will increase interest rates
Quotable Value New Zealand Ltd. said the nation’s house prices advanced 4.1 percent in July from a year earlier, after gaining 5.2 percent in June.
Nineteen percent of the 2,280 people polled last month forecast house prices will drop over the next year, up from 16 percent in May, a survey from ASB Bank Ltd. showed.
“Data and anecdotes are pointing to a pause in the tightening cycle,” a team of analysts led by Cameron Bagrie, chief economist at ANZ National Bank Ltd in Wellington, wrote in a note to clients.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its key rate to 3 percent last month while signaling that deteriorating growth prospects will slow the pace of future increases.
New Zealand’s two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, fell four basis points to 3.92 percent.
Australian bonds advanced, ending a two-day drop. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell four basis points to 5.11 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.