Wheat futures declined for a third day on speculation that prices have risen more than justified on falling production in Russia because world stocks of the grain remain ample. December-delivery wheat fell as much as 2.3 percent to $7.2625 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $7.305 at 12:23 p.m. Paris time. The contract has tumbled 16 percent since trading at $8.68 a bushel on Aug. 6, the highest price in almost two years. Wheat speculators slowed bets on higher prices after the biggest monthly gain in Chicago futures in 37 years, a sign that the rally may be peaking, according to Atlanta-based broker Grain Service Corp. “People have taken stock of all the news and are basically saying ‘we feel there’s a flaw’ with prices at this level,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty, by phone from Sydney today. “I would expect prices to remain under pressure,” he said, predicting a drop to $6.85 a bushel or lower. Chicago wheat prices have jumped 52 percent since the start of July as drought damaged crops in Russia, prompting the country to announce a grain-export ban as of Aug. 15. November-delivery milling wheat fell 2.3 percent to 208.25 euros ($273.83) a metric ton on NYSE Liffe in Paris. Russia’s wheat harvest, the third-largest in the 2009-2010 season, will be 44 million tons this year, 21 percent less than the 56 million tons forecast in July and down from 61.7 million tons in 2009, F.O. Licht said yesterday. ‘Different Dynamics’ Still, global wheat supply will be more than sufficient to meet demand, even as less grain is available, Keith Flury, an analyst at Licht, said in an e-mailed comment yesterday. The U.S., the world’s largest exporter, will be able to meet much of the international demand that can’t be handled by exporters from the Black Sea region, he said. Futures surged to a record $13.495 a bushel in February 2008 as declining stockpiles sparked concerns there may be a global food shortage, triggering riots from Egypt to Haiti. Investors “are coming to grips that perhaps it’s not similar to the 2008 price rise,” Commodity Broking’s Barratt said. “Completely different dynamics are at play and people are suspect as to whether the recent rally can be sustained.” Speculators including hedge funds raised their net-long positions, or bets wheat prices will rise, in futures and options by 5.3 percent in the week ended Aug. 3, the smallest increase since they turned bullish last month, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data on Aug. 6 show. Hot Weather Very hot and mostly dry weather dominated the eastern parts of European Russia and western parts of Asian Russia, and temperatures averaged 38 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit) to 41 degrees Celsius in central Ukraine and eastern Belarus on Aug. 8, Telvent DTN Inc. said in a report yesterday. That weather pattern will prevail in the 10 days from Aug. 9, it said. Corn for December delivery fell 0.7 percent to $4.15 a bushel in Chicago, while November-delivery soybeans slipped 0.7 percent to $10.275 a bushel. China’s soybean imports in July fell for the first time in five months as high inventory at ports and reduced crushing margins led to lower shipments by the world’s largest buyer. Imports were 4.95 million tons in July, compared with a record 6.2 million tons a month ago. Total shipments in the first seven months of this year rose 16 percent to 30.75 million tons, according to Bloomberg data.

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