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BLBG: Dollar, Yen Gain on Fed Speculation, Global Recovery Concern
 
By Catarina Saraiva and Bo Nielsen

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar and yen rose against most of their major counterparts before a Federal Reserve statement that will signal whether the world’s biggest economy needs additional stimulus measures.

The yen climbed after the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate and policy unchanged. Higher-yielding currencies, including the New Zealand dollar and South African rand, fell after China said the pace of property-price gains and import-growth slowed. The dollar remained strong as data showed the productivity of U.S. workers unexpectedly fell in the second quarter.

“Now that the Bank of Japan didn’t take any further easing measures last night, they’re pricing out quantitative easing from the Fed meeting this afternoon,” said Amelia Bourdeau, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS AG. “The expectation of the Fed introducing easing measures today kind of got out of hand.”

The dollar strengthened 0.8 percent to $1.3118 per euro at 8:40 a.m. in London. It depreciated to $1.3334 on Aug. 6, the weakest level since May 3. The yen fell 0.2 percent to 86.12 per dollar, from 85.93, and gained 0.6 percent to 112.94 per euro.

The measure of employee output per hour decreased at a 0.9 percent annual rate, the first drop since the end of 2008, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 0.1 percent gain.

Speculation on Fed

The greenback rose as the advantage in the yield of a benchmark German two-year government note versus a comparable U.S. treasury shrank to 16 basis points, or 0.16 percentage point, from 24 basis points at the end of last week, Bloomberg data show. Speculation has mounted that the Fed will resume a bond-buying program to support the U.S. economy. The Federal Open Market Committee plans to release a statement at about 2:15 p.m. in Washington.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said July 21 that the central bank wasn’t ready to take any action in the “near term.” At the same time, his assessment that the “economic outlook remains unusually uncertain,” along with recent weakness in data on housing and manufacturing, have fueled speculation by some economists the Fed will take steps as soon as today.

“The foreign-exchange market may well have already priced in the possibility of a mild downgrade to the health of the U.S. economy after payrolls last week and hence is likely to be looking for more concrete steps from the Fed to shore up the recovery,” Melinda Burgess, a currency analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, wrote in a note to clients.

‘Further Sell-Off’

“If the market is forced to wait for the minutes on 31 August for clearer insights into Fed discussions around the outlook” and another quantitative easing program, “then this is likely to trigger a further risk sell-off leading to dollar gains,” she wrote today.

Japan’s central bank kept the benchmark overnight rate unchanged at 0.1 percent today and maintained its credit programs for lenders by a unanimous vote.

Trade Minister Masayuki Naoshima said last week that the yen poses a risk to the outlook and Toshiyuki Shiga, chief operating officer at Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s third-biggest automaker, said last week he’s “very concerned” about the currency’s strength. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the stronger yen is a downside risk for corporate sentiment. He was speaking to reporters in Tokyo today.

“People had expected the BOJ to comment further about the currency, a lack of which seems to be causing disappointment” among those who had sold the yen, said Masao Okayama, a researcher at Norinchukin Research Institute Co. in Tokyo. “If the Fed takes easing measures, the yen will appreciate more.”

Chinese Exports

Higher-yielding currencies fell after China said exports climbed 38.1 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 43.9 percent gain in June. Imports advanced 22.7 percent, compared with June’s 34.1 percent growth. Property prices in 70 major Chinese cities climbed 10.3 percent from a year earlier in July, the slowest pace for six months, a separate report today showed.

“The markets are trading with a modest risk-off tone,” said Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist in Hong Kong at RBC Capital Markets, a unit of Canada’s largest lender. “Asian equities are in the red. The yen and the dollar are the top outperformers.”

The MSCI World Stock Index fell 0.8 percent, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1 percent.

Australia’s dollar declined after National Australia Bank Ltd. said its index of business confidence halved from June to 2 points in July.

‘Lingering Concerns’

“Amid lingering concerns about the U.S. and Chinese economies, risk sentiment remains weak,” said Hitoshi Kondo, a senior foreign-exchange analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd. “It’s hard to buy growth-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.”

The Australian dollar fell 1 percent to 90.72 U.S. cents, and dropped 0.8 percent to 78.12 yen.

Sterling was weaker against most of its most-traded peers after a U.K. housing-market gauge showed the first decline in prices in a year in July, while a separate survey said stores posted slower sales growth last month. The Bank of England is due to publish its quarterly inflation report tomorrow.

The pound dropped 1 percent to $1.5727.

To contact the reporters on this story: Catarina Saraiva in New York at asaraiva5@bloomberg.net; Bo Nielsen in Copenhagen at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net

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