Wheat may fall for a fourth day in Chicago on speculation that sufficient global supplies and a bigger harvest in the U.S., the largest shipper of the grain, will make up for a Russian ban on cereal exports. Wheat for December delivery was little changed at $7.265 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade at 1:30 p.m. Paris time, rebounding from a slide of as much as 1.3 percent. The contract has dropped 11 percent in the past four sessions. Global stockpiles of wheat remain “robust” enough to offset the effects of falling production in Russia, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said yesterday. U.S. wheat exports are forecast to jump 24 percent to 28.5 million metric tons in the season ending in June in response to lower Russian shipments, the International Grains Council said July 29. In the U.S., “the harvest is very proper and weather conditions continue to be favorable for the soybean and corn crops,” Paris-based farm adviser Agritel said in a comment on its website today. The U.S. will reap 61.5 million tons of wheat this year, more than the 60 million tons forecast previously and up from 60.4 million tons in 2009, F.O. Licht said in an Aug. 9 report. Wheat has jumped 50 percent in Chicago since the start of July amid concern that a smaller harvest in Russia will reduce availability of the grain in world markets. The current decline in prices is “a technical correction after the strong surge of the last weeks,” Agritel said. Global Inventories Milling wheat for November delivery traded on NYSE Liffe in Paris fell 0.2 percent to 206.50 euros ($268.59) a ton. World wheat stocks will fall 3.1 percent to 187.05 million tons before the harvest begins in the Northern Hemisphere next year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last month. Supplies dropped to 124.42 million tons in 2008, the lowest since 1982. The wheat rally is “unlikely to continue” with stocks equal to about 25 percent of use even after crop damage, JPMorgan Cazenove Ltd. analyst Neil Tyler wrote in a report today. The USDA’s crop report tomorrow may “refocus markets on the relatively comfortable inventory situation,” Tyler said. The USDA will update its world supply and demand forecasts Aug. 12 at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. The average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News was for global wheat stocks of 178.78 million tons, a two-year low. Ukraine Mulls Quota Ukraine will consider introducing a wheat export quota at a meeting today, Agriculture Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk said, after Russia said last week it would ban all grain exports as of Aug. 15 after a drought there wiped out crops. “The issue is probably more on the uncertainty as to what the actual situation is and the likely impact on other Black Sea exporters,” Michael Pitts, director for commodity sales at National Australia Bank Ltd., said by phone from Sydney today. “We’ll continue to see daily volatility in the next few weeks until we have more of an idea of the crops in Kazakhstan, Canada and Western Australia.” Egypt, the biggest importer, is seeking to buy at least 55,000 tons of wheat today for shipment between Sept. 10 and Sept. 25 in a tender, Nomani Nomani, vice chairman of the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said yesterday. Egypt expects its harvest of the grain to rise to 8 million tons next year from 6.5 million tons this year, Agriculture Minister Amin Abaza said yesterday. World Bank President Robert Zoellick yesterday cautioned countries against banning wheat exports to boost domestic supply, saying such moves add to “uncertainty in the markets.” Wheat surged to a record $13.495 a bushel in February 2008 as exporters including Ukraine imposed restrictions on shipments to boost domestic supply amid concern about a global food crisis that sparked panic and hoarding. December-delivery corn fell 0.1 percent to $4.0875 a bushel in Chicago, sliding for a third day. Soybeans for November delivery declined 0.4 percent to $10.18 a bushel.

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