Natural gas futures may fall next week on speculation that milder weather along the U.S. East Coast will reduce demand for the power-plant fuel, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Seven of 17 analysts, or 41 percent, forecast gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange will decrease through Aug. 27. Five, or 29 percent, predicted prices will rise and five others said there would be little change. Last week, 41 percent of participants said gas would climb. “We are running out of hot weather as summer winds down,” Peter Beutel, president of trading advisory company Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut, said in an e-mail. “Funds are selling gas aggressively. Unless end-users have a reason to buy, or producers see in a tropical warning a reason to cover shorts, the funds seem likely to have their way with natural gas prices.” New York may have a high of 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25 Celsius) Aug. 23, 4 degrees below average, according to AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania. Boston may have a high of 76 degrees. Temperatures in both cities were above average during much of the first half of August. About 23 percent of U.S. electricity is generated using natural gas, according to the Energy Department. Hedge funds and other large speculators cut their bullish bets on natural gas to their lowest level this year in the week ended Aug. 10, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hurricane Season The Atlantic hurricane season so far has had less of an impact than expected on gas production, the department said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Aug. 10. Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie this year reduced production by 8 billion cubic feet, less than the 20 billion the government had expected, the report showed. Natural gas for September delivery on the New York exchange declined 15.7 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $4.171 per million British thermal units in the first four days of this week. The gas survey has correctly forecast the direction of prices 47 percent of the time since its June 2004 introduction. Bloomberg’s survey of natural-gas analysts and traders asks for an assessment of whether Nymex natural-gas futures will probably rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. This week’s results were: RISE FALL NEUTRAL 5 7 5 To contact the reporter on this story: Noah Buhayar in New York at buhayar@bloomberg.net

Source