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BS: Oil rallies to around $US73
 
LONDON - Oil rose for a second day following better-than-expected US unemployment data and a fall in the dollar as investors moved back into the market after it recovered from 11-week lows.

New US claims for unemployment benefits fell more that expected last week, government data showed. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 31,000 to a seasonally adjusted 473,000 in the week to August 21.

Gold fell and the US dollar erased some losses after the jobs data while US oil prices added an extra 30 cents to its earlier gains before slipping back.

Benchmark US crude futures for October traded at $US72.87, up 35 cents per barrel, by 2320 AEST after reaching a high of $US73.76, up $US1.24.

The contract rose more than one per cent after touching $US70.76, its lowest since early June.

Oil has dropped about $US10 from a peak of almost $US83 on August 4.

ICE Brent climbed $US1.07 to $US74.55.

"The market has been discounting another dip in the US economy recently and has been oversold," commodity analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt Eugen Weinberg said.

"Today's jobs data is better than expectations and there is also some bargain-hunting after the recent price falls."

The rally was supported by a 0.3 per cent fall in the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies.

A weaker US dollar often supports commodities because many of them are priced in the US currency.

Equity markets were also stronger.

Front-month US crude futures' 14-day relative strength index (RSI) fell to just 30, a technical pointer to oversold conditions, but has since bounced to around 40, Reuters data show, partly on profit-taking from short positions.

Gloomy

But the supply and demand picture for oil remained negative and the wider economic picture was also gloomy, leading some analysts to suggest the rally could be short-lived.

"This has all the hallmarks of an upside correction or retracement in an otherwise falling market," brokers at PVM Oil Associates in London said.

Financial markets awaited US second-quarter gross domestic product due for release on Friday.

New US home sales slumped to their slowest pace on record in July and orders for costly durable goods were weak, data showed on Wednesday, heightening fears the economy was at risk of another downturn.

A slowdown in the manufacturing sector as indicated by the weak US durable goods orders report "does not offer much hope for a bounce in diesel demand heading into September," strategist at BNP Paribas Harry Tchilinguirian said in a note.

"Similarly, labour markets offer scant support to gasoline demand, and with the end of the driving season around the corner, seasonal support will begin to fade," he added.

A negative underlying mood also prevailed in the oil market after government statistics showed total US oil stocks rose to a fresh all-time high last week, with gains across the board.

The US Energy Information Administration said US crude inventories rose by a bigger-than-expected 4.11 million barrels last week.

Gasoline inventories were 2.27 million barrels higher, while distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel, increased by a larger-than-expected 1.76 million barrels.

In aggregate, commercial crude and product stocks rose to 1.139 billion barrels last week, topping the record weekly high of 1.13 billion barrels set in the week to August 13.

"The United States is filled-up to the rim on product stocks," consultant at Petromatrix in Zug in Switzerland Olivier Jakob said.

"The US stock levels are so high that it is difficult to price any risk premiums. At current stock levels, (even) a hurricane will not be difficult to manage."


Source