WSJ: OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Falls; Economic Data Ahead
By Jerry A. DiColo Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures ventured lower Tuesday as upcoming data lead to worries about further stumbles in the economic recovery.
Light, sweet crude for October delivery recently traded 38 cents, or 0.5%, lower at $74.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded down 10 cents at $76.50 a barrel.
Oil extended Monday's losses heading into a week filled with government reports that investors expect will show the economy continues to struggle. Markets received a boost last week after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated the central bank was willing to take further action to support the economy. But data on manufacturing and unemployment this week could weigh on any optimism.
"It's a similar story to yesterday. We've got a week with a lot of data coming through," said Matt Smith, an oil analyst with Summit Energy.
The S&P Case-Schiller home-price indexes on Tuesday showed home prices jumped 4.4% in the second quarter. The report helped to pare some losses in the oil and equities markets, as higher home prices could offer consumers some confidence regarding the economic recovery. Year-to-year increases in June, from May, however, pointed to a "possible deceleration in home price returns."
Equities markets, which have traded closely in line to oil in recent months, were set to open mstly flat. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were recently down slightly, recently falling 7 points to 9972.
The monthly unemployment figures due Friday will likely be the most influential data, Smith said, though he pointed to a report from the Institute for Supply Management, due Wednesday, as particularly worrying for the oil market, as it will likely show slowing growth in the manufacturing sector.
"Even though we're not going to be heading lower all week for crude--we'll probably get a bounce along the way--it's going to be pretty bearish," he said.
Oil prices have traded in a narrow range between about $70 and $80 a barrel for several months. Over that period, stockpiles of U.S. oil and fuel products have risen to the highest level in nearly 27 years. But some market watchers believe demand internationally remains strong even as signals in the U.S. have shown slowing economic growth, suggesting domestic oil demand will fall.
Last week, the Commerce Department said U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product rose at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of 1.6%, revised down from an earlier estimate of 2.4% growth.
Meanwhile, the Energy Department is expected to report that crude and oil product stockpiles continue to grow in data due 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday. Analysts expect a 1.3-million-barrel increase in crude stockpiles, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. Gasoline stocks are seen rising by 200,000 barrels, while distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are expected to rise by 1 million barrels.
"This week's DOE report will be viewed with interest by old-line oil market observers, but the number that everyone expects to have the biggest effect this week is Friday's monthly unemployment number for August," said research firm Cameron Hanover, in a client note.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9.6%, from 9.5% a month ago.
Front-month September reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded 0.05 cent higher at $1.9346 a gallon. September heating oil recently traded 0.48 cent higher to $2.0300 a gallon. Both contracts expire after settlement Tuesday.
-By Jerry A. DiColo, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2155; jerry.dicolo@dowjones.com.