COM: Comex Gold firmer in quieter dealings as fresh economic data awaited
By Jim Wyckoff of Kitco News
Comex gold futures prices are higher in quieter trading Thursday morning, as traders await fresh U.S. economic data. A weaker U.S. dollar has recently been supporting buying interest in gold. December gold last traded up $4.00 an ounce at $1,252.00. Spot gold was last quoted up $5.20 at $1,250.00.
The U.S. dollar index is trading lower Thursday as the greenback bulls are fading this week. Any further weakness in the U.S. currency will continue to attract buying interest in the precious yellow metal. The U.S. stock indexes are near steady Thursday morning, while crude oil prices are weaker.
U.S. economic data due out Thursday includes weekly jobless claims, the pending home sales index and manufacturers' shipments and orders data. However, precious metals traders are anxiously awaiting Friday's U.S. employment report, which is expected to show the key non-farm payrolls figure to be down 123,000 in August, following a decline of 131,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate is forecast to come in at 9.6% from the July reading of 9.5%. Look for more active trading in the precious metals and other markets in the immediate aftermath of Friday morning's jobs data. Gold would likely get a boost if the jobs report shows significantly more weakness than expected.
News reports overnight said physical demand for gold remains strong, especially in India, despite the recent rally in gold prices. Reports also said gold holdings in the big SPDR Gold Shares fund rose by 1.5 metric tons Wednesday.
The London A.M. gold fixing was $1,247.75 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,246.50.
(NOTE: Part of my mission here at Kitco is to provide you, my valued reader, with continuing education that will help you make better trading and investing decisions. I wrote a feature story a while back on "10 More Valuable Trading Rules," that complemented my original "Top 10" trading rules story. If you'd like to read that feature story, just send me an email at jwyckoff@kitco.com and I will attach it and email it back to you.--Jim)
Technically, Comex gold bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices hit a fresh two-month high on Wednesday. The gold market is still within striking distance of the all-time record high of $1,270.60, scored in June. Given the historically stock-market bearish months of September and October, odds are higher that gold prices will notch a fresh all-time high during that timeframe. Comex gold prices are in a solid six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The next near-term upside price objective for the gold market bulls is to push and close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at the contract and all-time high of $1,270.60. The bears' next near-term downside price objective is producing a close in December gold futures below solid chart support at this week's low of $1,233.50. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week's high of $1,256.60 and then at $1,259.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below chart support at the overnight low of $1,245.30 and then at the overnight low of $1,240.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci pivot level for December gold: $1,248.00.
Comex silver futures are firmer again Thursday morning and hit a fresh 10-week high. December silver last traded up 11.7 cents at $19.51 an ounce. The silver bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver will continue to generally follow the lead of the gold market.
The next near-term upside price objective for the silver market bulls is to push and close December Comex futures prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $19.915 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the silver bears is to push and close December silver prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $18.86
December silver finds shorter-term technical resistance at overnight high of $19.565 and then at $19.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support for December silver is located at the overnight low of $19.345 and then at $19.20. Sell stops are likely placed just below those levels. Today's key Fibonacci pivot level for December silver futures is located at $19.29.
