BLBG: Index Futures Fluctuate Before U.S. Jobs Report
By Mark Gilbert
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks advanced for a third day and U.S. index futures fluctuated before a U.S. jobs report that economists predict will show private employers hired 40,000 workers. Wheat gained as Russia extended a ban on exports.
The MSCI World Index of stocks in 24 developed markets rose less than 0.1 percent at 10:00 a.m. in London, extending the biggest weekly gain in almost two months. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slipped 0.1 percent. Wheat jumped 1.3 percent, copper climbed for a third day and gold advanced to within 1 percent of its record. Crude oil declined 0.6 percent, headed for a weekly loss, while the dollar was little changed.
Total U.S. employment probably dropped for a third month, with the economy losing 105,000 jobs in August and the jobless rate climbing to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. This week’s advance in stocks added $1.2 trillion to the global equities market as China’s manufacturing increased and India’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in 2 ½ years.
“A lower growth environment leaves all of us market participants on the edge as genuine soft patches will look more like potential double dips than they did pre-2007,” wrote Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London, in a research report. “Every data point will be scrutinized when the data is as inconsistent as it has been of late.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent, extending this week’s advance to 3 percent. Neopost SA, the French mailroom equipment maker, gained 3.7 percent as revenue increased. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.5 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 expiring this month declined 0.1 percent before the Labor Department’s payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
Emerging Markets
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 0.5 percent, heading for the biggest weekly gain in six weeks. Taiwan’s benchmark Taiex index climbed the most in a month, led by flat- panel maker Chimei Innolux Corp. on speculation fourth-quarter demand for consumer electronics will improve. Emerging-market stocks may outperform for the rest of the year as below-trend growth and low inflation in developed nations drive inflows to “healthy” developing economies, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by Adrian Mowat in Hong Kong wrote in a report today.
Treasuries were little changed, with the 10-year yield holding at 2.62 percent before the payrolls data after climbing from as low as 2.47 percent on Aug. 31. German bunds were also little changed, heading for their first loss in six weeks, as the yield rose one basis point to 2.94 percent.
Currencies, Commodities
The euro was little changed at $1.2828 and 108.15 yen, while Japan’s currency was at 84.33 per dollar. The pound erased earlier advances against the dollar and the euro after a report showed services industries expanded at a slower pace than forecast in August.
Wheat for delivery in December increased 9.25 cents to $7.23 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the third consecutive advance. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin yesterday extended Russia’s export ban on grains and flour to see how next year’s harvests develop. The ban was scheduled to end Dec. 31. About a third of Russia’s grains crop this year was damaged because of the worst drought in 50 years.
Copper for delivery in three months climbed 0.3 percent to $7,660 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. The October crude oil contract fell as much as 48 cents to $74.54 a barrel in New York. Tropical storm warnings were issued for parts of the New England coast as a weakening Hurricane Earl continued to move north near the U.S. eastern seaboard. Gold for immediate delivery climbed 0.1 percent to $1,252.75 an ounce, nearing the June 21 record of $1,265.30.
Double-Dip Strategies
New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said the dollar, yen and Swiss franc may be better investments than gold if the economy slips back into recession.
“If there was a double-dip recession, increasing risk aversion, some assets are going to be preferred, and gold will be one of them,” Roubini said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s On The Move with Francine Lacqua. “But in that situation, things like the dollar, the yen, the Swiss franc have more upside in a situation of rising risk aversion because they are much more liquid than the gold market.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Gilbert in London at magilbert@bloomberg.net