BLBG: Palm Oil Climbs Amid Speculation Soybean Crop May Miss Target
By Thomas Kutty Abraham
Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil futures jumped by the most in almost a month amid speculation that supplies of U.S. soybeans, which can be crushed to make a substitute oil, may be lower than expected.
The November-delivery contract surged 2 percent to 2,620 ringgit ($841) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the biggest gain at close since Aug. 9. The most-active contract earlier gained as much as 2.3 percent to 2,630 ringgit, the highest level since Aug. 17. Futures gained 1.1 percent last week, the first weekly advance in three.
“There are some concerns the U.S. soybean crop may be lower than expected, and that’s going to act as a catalyst for palm oil,” said Arhnue Tan, an analyst at ECM Libra Capital Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur.
Soybean futures may rise on speculation that the U.S. Department of Agriculture will Sept. 10 cut its forecast for the crop because of bad weather in the Midwest, 24 of 33 traders and analysts surveyed from Chicago to Tokyo predicted on Sept. 3.
The U.S. soybean crop will be 3.37 billion bushels, 1.8 percent less than the USDA’s forecast of 3.433 billion, Allendale Inc., said on Sept. 3, citing a survey of farmers.
Soybeans for November delivery rose 2.6 percent to close at $10.35 a bushel on Sept. 3 on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since July 15. The U.S. markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday.
Premium Widens
December-delivery soybean oil gained 1.6 percent to 40.86 cents a pound on Sept. 3, widening the vegetable oil’s premium over palm oil to $75.70 a ton that day from $73.58 a day earlier, according to Bloomberg data.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, May-delivery soybeans climbed 0.9 percent to 4,071 yuan ($600) a ton, while soybean oil jumped 0.5 percent to 8,184 yuan a ton. Palm oil for delivery in May advanced 0.4 percent to 7,338 yuan a ton.
“Some concerns of dry weather in Latin America at a time when planting is about to begin is also helping soybeans and other oilseeds,” ECM Libra’s Tan said.
Still, palm oil may be pressured by the first monthly gain in stockpiles in a year in Malaysia, the second-biggest producer, after exports fell in August, she said. Exports from Malaysia slumped 17.8 percent in August, independent cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Sept. 1. Shipments declined 13.6 percent, according to surveyor Intertek.
To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Kutty Abraham in Mumbai at tabraham4@bloomberg.net