BS: Ruble Slumps to 6-Month Low Versus Euro on Yen Sales, Lower Oil
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The ruble tumbled to its weakest in six months against the euro and to a seven-month low versus the central bank’s basket on speculation other countries will try to stem currency gains after Japan sold the yen for the first time since 2004.
A drop in oil prices also helped push Russia’s currency lower, with the ruble weakening as much as 1.2 percent to 40.05 per euro, the lowest intraday price since March 22, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It lost 0.8 percent to 34.9796 versus the basket by 2:12 p.m. in Moscow, headed for its weakest close since February.
The Bank of Japan sold yen today to cap currency appreciation that erodes export competitiveness, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said in Tokyo. Most Asian currencies fell after the move threatened to cut overseas sales, which account for about half of the economy in South Korea. The yen slid from a 15-year high versus the dollar and slumped 1.8 percent to 36.1726 against the ruble. Crude, Russia’s chief export earner, retreated for a second day in New York.
“The Japanese move has led to weakness in developing- market currencies across Asia as investors fear that other central banks will have to replicate Tokyo’s move,” Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Moscow-based bank UralSib Financial Corp., said in an e-mail interview. “Contagion to other global emerging-market currencies is also likely to weaken the ruble basket.”
Longer-Term Appreciation
Bank Rossii, Russia’s central bank, manages the ruble against a basket of dollars and euros to limit currency swings that may hurt exports. The ruble slid as much as 0.4 percent to 30.87 per dollar today, the weakest intraday price for five days.
The central bank may intervene in the ruble today given the large volume of trade and movement in the basket, said Alexey Borichev, head of the foreign-exchange and interest-rates department at ING Groep NV in Moscow. “We could expect central bank actions, but not at any exact level.”
The central bank has been targeting a corridor of 33.40 to 36.40 against the basket since April, First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said in June. It also considers oil prices when deciding to buy or sell dollars or euros, he said.
Bank Rossii bought $1.1 billion and 135.6 million euros ($176 million) on the market last month to control the ruble, according to a Sept. 7 statement. The Moscow-based regulator doesn’t comment on its daily actions in the currency market.
Haven Status
Investors increased bets that the ruble will weaken for the first day this week, with non-deliverable forwards showing the currency at 31.0775 per dollar in three months, the weakest for almost a week. The contracts, known as NDFs, are a way of gauging the likely direction of currencies as they allow companies to hedge against exchange-rate fluctuations and foreign investors to speculate on currencies of countries that limit their participation.
In the long-term, the Japanese currency intervention will probably support for the ruble, UralSib’s Weafer said.
“A weaker dollar, a more interventionist Japanese central bank and solvency risks in Europe hanging over the euro undermine the haven status of major currencies,” he said. “Investors are more likely to spread risk by holding more developing-market currencies, including the ruble.”
Russia’s currency basket is calculated by multiplying the dollar’s rate to the ruble by 0.55, the euro-ruble rate by 0.45, then adding them together.
The country’s dollar bonds maturing in 2020 gained, driving the yield down 5 basis points to 4.59 percent, the lowest since Aug. 23. Ruble-denominated federal bonds due in November 2014 were unchanged at 6.84 percent.
--Editors: John Kohut, Alex Nicholson.
To contact the reporter on this story: Emma O’Brien in London at eobrien6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: at gserkin@bloomberg.net