BLBG: U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Cools, Pointing to Slower Growth
By Courtney Schlisserman and Bob Willis
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Factory production cooled in August, pointing to a slower pace of growth as the U.S. struggles to sustain a recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.
Industrial output rose 0.2 percent after a 0.6 percent gain in July that was smaller than previously estimated, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today. Manufacturing in the New York region expanded this month at the slowest pace in more than a year, according to another report from the central bank.
“The recovery has lost some of its upward momentum, but does not appear to be in any imminent danger,” said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “We’re getting weak growth, but growth.”
Ford Motor Co. is among companies not looking to boost U.S. output on concern a lack of jobs will hold back consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. Orders from overseas and the need for some companies to replace outdated equipment are supporting other manufacturers including Caterpillar Inc.
Stocks fluctuated between gains and losses as speculation that takeovers will accelerate helped ease concern about the strength of the recovery. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent to 1,120.04 at 11:20 a.m. in New York. Treasury notes advanced for a third day, led by five-year securities, on speculation Japan will buy shorter-term U.S. debt after selling the yen for the first time since 2004 to support its economy.
Empire State
The Fed Bank of New York’s so-called Empire State index fell to 4.1 this month, the lowest reading since July 2009, from 7.1 in August. Readings greater than zero signal expansion. Measures of orders, sales and employment all improved, signaling the drop was mainly a reflection of waning confidence.
The cost of goods imported into the U.S. rose 0.6 percent in August, more than forecast, as crude oil and food costs jumped, masking contained inflation elsewhere, Labor Department figures also showed today.
Economists forecast industrial production would increase 0.2 percent after an originally reported 1 percent jump in July, according to the median of 78 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a 0.3 percent drop to a gain of 0.5 percent.
Capacity utilization, which measures the amount of a plant that is in use, increased to 74.7 percent last month from 74.6 percent in July. The gauge averaged 80 percent over the past 20 years, showing there’s enough spare plant equipment and space to prevent bottlenecks that would lead to higher prices.
Ford’s Plans
Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford has no plans to increase production of any of its current models because demand is fragile in the weak economic recovery, George Pipas, the automaker’s sales analyst, said in an interview last month. The automaker plans to build 570,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, the same as this quarter.
The growth in manufacturing last month was paced by gains in production of business equipment that point to continued improvement in investment by companies in the U.S. or overseas. Production of technological gear, including computers, semiconductors and communications equipment rose 1 percent.
Slowing household demand is prompting some companies to cut forecasts. Intel Corp. last month reduced its third-quarter revenue projection as the world’s biggest chipmaker cited weaker-than-expected consumer demand for personal computers in mature markets.
Growing Exports
Overseas demand is helping others cope with a slowdown in the U.S. Exports climbed in July to the highest level in almost two years, according to data from the Commerce Department.
General Electric Co., the world’s biggest maker of jet engines, locomotives, power-plant turbines and medical-imaging equipment, is bolstering manufacturing in the U.S.
“When I look across the variety of GE’s businesses we see the world getting better,” Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said Sept. 13 at the Montana Economic Development Summit. “Slowly but surely we’re pulling out.”
President Barack Obama’s approval ratings have slipped as economic growth slowed this year and employment stagnated. Fifty-six percent of voters said they disapproved of his handling of the economy, according to a poll by Quinnipiac University taken Aug. 31 to Sept. 7.
To contact the reporters on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net; Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net