FX: The dollar rose from a five−month low against the euro
Review U.S. stocks fell, sending the S&P 500 Index lower for a third day, as a deteriorating profit outlook for banks and an increase in jobless claims overshadowed a rally in technology shares. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan fell more than 2 percent as Bank of America cut profit projections and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said the U.S. mortgage market is “absolutely broken.” Apple climbed for the 17th time in 19 days to became the world’s second-largest company by market value, passing PetroChina, as an analyst boosted estimates for iPad sales. The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent to 1,120.50 at 4:30 p.m. in New York.
Strategy Looking ahead, we are predicting a consolidation of the recent uptrend favouring some profit taking and risk aversion as we are expecting mixed U.S. economic data. The U.S. Commerce Department’s report due today at 1:30 p.m. may show a drop in demand in the transportation category that may negatively impact the Durable Goods Headline. This should be partially offset by an increase in New Home Sales for August, after the weakest data on record reported in July. We think the Housing Market reached the bottom in July and we are expecting a phase of consolidation be-fore to see a strong recovery. This week’s better than expected Housing Starts and Existing home sales seem to support our view.
Alternative Scenario Positive fundamental news flow could lead to a break-out of Wednesday’s High at 1,140.25 opening the way for a move to Tuesday’s high at 1,144.00.