BLBG: Crude Futures Fall, Head for Weekly Decline, Before U.S. Payroll Report
Oil declined as the dollar advanced against the euro, recovering from yesterday’s nine-month low, before a report today that may show unemployment in the U.S. increased last month.
Futures headed for their first weekly decline in three weeks. A government report today may show the U.S. jobless rate rose for a second consecutive month in September, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
“The dollar has strengthened since early morning and this is keeping the downtrend in oil going,” said Alexander Ridgers, head of commodities at London-based CMC Markets, which handles more than $150 million a day in U.S. crude contracts.
Crude for November delivery fell as much as $1.05, or 1.3 percent, to $80.62 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $80.63 as of 10:47 a.m. London time. The contract has fallen 1.2 percent this week. Brent crude for November settlement fell 73 cents to $82.70 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.
The dollar gained 0.2 percent to trade at $1.3898 against the euro. The U.S. currency slumped yesterday to $1.4029, the weakest since Jan. 28. Investors tend to buy commodities when the dollar falls.
The U.S. Labor Department may say today the September jobless rate rose to 9.7 percent from 9.6 percent in August, according to the median estimate of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Private payrolls in the U.S. probably increased 75,000 in September after slowing to a 67,000 gain in August. Overall nonfarm payrolls may have declined by 5,000.
“If the jobs figure were to be negative, that might have some impact on oil, pushing it lower,” said Gavin Wendt, a director at Mine Life Resources Ltd. in Sydney.
French Strike
A strike at the Fos and Lavera oil terminals at the French port of Marseille left 19 crude-oil tankers and 26 oil-product tankers waiting to load or discharge, Inchcape Shipping Services said in a notice on its website today.
At least four French refineries may be forced to start shutting down operations this weekend. The strike may endanger local fuel supplies as early as Oct. 18, said Jean-Louis Schilansky, head of refiners’ organization Union Francaise des Industries Petrolieres, in a telephone interview today.
Crude oil may decline next week as U.S. inventories increase and fuel consumption drops, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Seventeen of 33 analysts, or 52 percent, forecast crude oil will decline through Oct. 15. Twelve respondents, or 36 percent, predicted an increase, and four estimated prices will be little changed. Last week, 42 percent said crude would climb.
Daily exports of North Sea Brent crude are scheduled to rise 15 percent in November from this month, according to a trader with access to the loading schedule. Exports will average 160,000 barrels a day next month compared with 139,032 barrels a day in October.
To contact the reporter on this story: Rachel Graham in London rgraham13@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net