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LSE: Dollar woes resume after G20; yen at 15-year peak
 
NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a fresh

15-year low against the yen on Monday in a broad sell off after

a Group of 20 agreement to shun competitive currency

devaluations and allow market forces to set exchange rates.

At the meeting in South Korea, G20 finance chiefs struck a

surprise deal to give emerging nations a bigger voice in the

International Monetary Fund, recognising the quickening shift

in economic power away from Western industrial nations.

Analysts said the outcome pointed to a status quo in

currency markets, with the dollar staying under pressure due to

expectations for the Federal Reserve to unveil a second round

of quantitative easing as early as its Nov. 2-3 meeting.

The G20 statement 'didn't go far enough as saying countries

won't devalue their currencies so we saw the yen go to a fresh

15-year high,' said John Doyle, strategist at Tempus Consulting

in Washington. 'The focus now is on the Fed's November 3

meeting and expectations of further quantitative easing.'

The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket

of currencies, dropped 0.6 percent to 76.922, but

support was seen around its 10-month low of 76.14.

The dollar fell over 1 percent against the yen to 80.41 yen

on electronic trading platform EBS, its lowest in 15

years. Market players said chances of Japanese yen-selling

intervention would increase if the dollar fell below 80.00 yen

and tests its record low of 79.75 yen.

In early New York trade the dollar was last at 80.55 yen , having

risen as high as $1.4080 and breaking through resistance at

$1.4051. The move was significant as the euro had failed

several times in recent days to break through and hold the

$1.4000 level.

The euro rally on Monday marked the 76.4 percent

retracement of the euro's drop to $1.3697 last week from an

8-1/2 month high of $1.4161 hit earlier this month.

Some traders expect $1.4161 to be reached soon. But gains

above there were likely to be checked due to the presence of

some large option barriers, including a one-touch option

barrier at $1.4215 that is set to expire on Wednesday.

That could lead to a stronger-than-usual defense of that

level with the barrier payout said to be a massive 30 million

euros. Normal option payouts are usually in the order of 3-5

million euros.

One trader said real money accounts and trend-following

commodity trading advisers were seen buying the euro and the

Australian dollar, while another cited buying of the euro and

the Australian dollar by Asian accounts.

The Australian dollar surged roughly 1.2 percent to $0.9948 , boosted by news that Singapore


will buy Australian bourse operator ASX, and

expectations of a rate increase early next month. .



FOCUS ON FED

That was in sharp contrast to the U.S. where the Federal

Reserve looks set to ease monetary policy further.

While U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reiterated

that the United States supports a strong dollar at the G20

meeting, there were few takers for that.

'It is one thing for the Treasury to say that, but then the

Fed holds all the ammunition and when it is set to print more

money, the dollar will remain a weakened currency,' said Jane

Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the Fed is almost certain to

announce renewed monetary easing at next week's policy meeting.

They said it may announce $500 billion in asset purchases or a

bit more over a period of about six months, and the size could

eventually reach $2 trillion.

In a Reuters poll earlier this month, U.S. primary dealers

projected the size of quantitative easing in a range of $500

billion to $1.5 trillion.
Source