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BLBG: Crude Oil Trades Near $82 as Investors Buy Commodities on Dollar Weakness
 
Oil traded near $82 a barrel in New York as a weakening dollar boosted investor demand for raw materials and after a report showed U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell by the most in a year.

Futures were little changed, after dropping 0.7 percent yesterday, as the dollar declined versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts. Economists expect the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, to announce a second round of asset purchases when it meets next week. An Energy Department report yesterday showed gasoline supplies in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, plunged unexpectedly last week.

“Investors are sitting on the sidelines because they’re waiting for next week’s FOMC meeting and the mid-term elections,” said Serene Lim, an energy and commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. The Energy Department report is “overall quite bullish,” she said.

Crude for December delivery was at $81.93 a barrel, down 1 cent, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:50 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract dropped 61 cents to $81.94. Futures are up 3.2 percent this year.

The dollar fell against the euro for the first time in three days as Asian stocks gained amid optimism the global recovery remains intact, damping demand for the greenback as a refuge. The U.S. currency lost 0.5 percent to $1.3833 a euro.

“When you look at gold and oil, and to a lesser extent copper, movements are related to the dollar,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney.

Gasoline Supplies

U.S. gasoline stockpiles dropped 4.39 million barrels to 214.9 million in the week ended Oct. 22, the Energy Department report showed. That’s the biggest decline since Oct. 9, 2009. Supplies were expected to advance by 625,000 barrels, based on the median estimate from 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Distillate fuel inventories, including heating oil and diesel, declined 1.61 million barrels to 168.4 million, the Energy Department said. They were projected to drop 1.5 million barrels, the survey showed.

U.S. crude stockpiles increased 5.01 million barrels to 366.2 million, the largest jump since July, the Energy Department said. A 1 million-barrel build was forecast, according to the survey.

U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 2 percent annual pace in the third quarter, up from a 1.7 percent rate in the previous three months, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg News poll of economists before a Commerce Department report tomorrow. The U.S. holds mid-term congressional elections on Nov. 2.

Brent crude for December settlement traded at $83.17, down 6 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Yesterday, the contract fell 43 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $83.23.

Chart Resistance

Oil in New York is facing resistance at $81.74 a barrel, setting the stage for prices to climb to $87 or fall to $78, based on levels using Fibonacci analysis, according to energy consultants Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania.

Futures have settled above or below the 76.4 percent retracement level of $81.74 a barrel for nine of the past 11 trading sessions, Schork Group President Stephen Schork said in a report yesterday. Prices may push to the top of the Fibonacci range at $87.15, near the highest price this year, or drop to $78.40, depending on whether the Federal Reserve decides to buy more government securities, a policy known as quantitative easing.

“This is the textbook definition of sideways trading -- what are the markets waiting for?” Schork said in the report. “We are waiting for the FOMC meeting and its implication for the dollar before we place our bets.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net; Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Clyde Russell in Singapore at crussell7@bloomberg.net
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