IBT: Euro falls as debt woes resurface in region; at 1-month lows vs pound, Canadian dollar
The Euro fell across the board on Monday as looming debt problems in the region weighed on the currency, and with investors' confidence in the US dollar increasing after a strong jobs data last week. The single currency fell to a 1-month low versus the British pound and Canadian dollar on a day with no key data due from respective economies.
On Friday, the 10-year Irish bond yield stood at record spread over the comparable German paper and a similar Spanish/German yield gap rose to its highest since mid-July, indicating that the region has serious problems to deal with before thinking to get out of its accommodative monetary policy.
The euro fell to 1.3904 levels against the greenback, a near one-week low for the pair. While the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement from its last week's high on a one-hour chart shows that the euro sees an immediate support around 1.386, momentum indicator relative strength index (RSI) shows that it is in the oversold territory and is ready for a rebound.
The European Central Bank last week left its key refinancing rate unchanged but it also did not reveal any plan to expand its quantitative easing program unlike its counterpart in the US. However, Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB president, said in a post-policy press conference that he could not say if the easing was over.
Against the sterling, the euro remained weak for a third straight session on Monday and hit its lowest since October 5 during the day. The EUR/GBP pair was at 0.8632 as of 1021 GMT, from its previous close of 0.8665 and down nearly 3 percent from a 7-month high of 0.8894 reached on October 25. A momentum indicator study shows that the pair is in the oversold territory and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement from last month's highs suggests an immediate resistance around 0.87.
The Bank of England too announced its monetary policy last week, leaving the key rate unaltered. The pound gained ground following the announcement which also did not contain any measures to expand its quantitative easing.
The strength of the Canadian dollar was mostly on the back of a strong data from the US last Friday. Canadian economy is highly dependent on trade with the US and any sign that its neighbor is picking up will improve the investment appeal of its currency. Canada will publish its October housing starts figures later in the day, which will likely impact the loonie.
At 1021 GMT, the EUR/CAD pair was at 1.3975, after falling to 1.3935, its lowest since September 29. At its current level, the euro is down 2.6 percent from an 8-month high of 1.4345 it hit on October 25. As in the case of the previous pairs, momentum indicators show that the EUR/CAD is oversold and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement from last month's highs points to an immediate resistance around 1.403.
With little or no data due from major economies on Monday, investors' attention will be towards speeches by Euro group finance ministers' head Junker, ECB Vice president Constancio and EU president Van Rompuy scheduled for the day. In the US, Fed's Bullard, Fisher and Warsh speak on different occasions on Monday.