RTRS: METALS-LME copper hits 27-mth peak; shifts to backwardation
* LME copper at 27-mth peak; ShFE highest since March 2008
* LME cash/threes in first backwardation since August 2009
* China releases lead from stocks, sells zinc at discount
By Nick Trevethan
SINGAPORE, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Copper prices in London and
Shanghai rallied to their highest since 2008, as the dollar
halted two days of gains, luring speculators back to
commodities.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3
rose 1.3 percent to $8,775 a tonne, its highest since hitting a
record $8,940 in July 2008. Benchmark third-month Shanghai
copper SCFc3 rose almost 2 percent to 67,630 yuan, its
highest since March 2008. By 0432 GMT, LME copper traded at
$8,760.25.
Earlier, prices dipped to $8,625 under pressure from a rise
of 0.5 percent in the dollar, which has rallied for the past
two sessions on worries about euro zone debt.
But the greenback pared its gains to 0.25 percent versus
the euro EUR= and 0.1 percent against a trade-weighted
currency basket .DXY, helping lift a range of commodity
markets, including base metals, gold, silver and palladium.
"Yes the market is worried about the euro zone, but they
are more worried about the Fed, and about copper supply.
Despite the breakdown in the past few days, the short
dollar-long commodity trade looks set to continue to be a money
spinner," a dealer in Hong Kong said.
Copper has held up in the face of a stronger dollar, with
the U.S. currency supported by budget problems in Ireland and
follow-through from last week's surprisingly strong U.S. jobs
data.
But analysts said the longer term outlook for the dollar
was likely to remain weak.
"Although QE2 and a weaker dollar environment will likely
be supportive of commodity prices generally, we also expect the
underlying fundamentals for the various base metals to continue
exerting an influence on price behaviour," Standard Bank said
in a note.
Those concerns about supply showed up in the spread between
cash and three month contracts MCU0-3, which flipped from
contango to backwardation on Monday, for the first time in more
than year.
For a graphic, click:
here
Support came as a strike by union workers at Chile's
Collahuasi, the world's No. 3 copper mine, headed into its
fifth day with no sign of resolution.
The mine's owners said output had not been affected but
industry sources said that after a week, the strike would start
to take effect. [ID:nN05111737]
For a graphic on copper supply, click:
r.reuters.com/req72q
"Amid the lack of direction for much of the year, and times
when commodities essentially behaved as a proxy for the
strength of the dollar, it's heartening to note that the
fundamentals also appear to have had an impact," Standard Bank
said.
"The best performing metals so far this year, namely tin,
copper and nickel are also the metals which have seen the
largest falls in on-warrant LME inventory. Copper and nickel
inventories have both bucked recent seasonal trends, with
copper inventories being drawn down every month in 2010, except
January."
The traditional pattern in copper is for falls in stocks in
the first half and gains in the second. LME copper stocks have
fallen by a third from highs earlier this year.
Other metals also powered ahead, with LME zinc CMZN3
rising 2.1 percent to $2,530 and LME lead CMPB3 1.2 percent
firmer at $2,534.25.
China's State Reserves Bureau (SRB) will sell 34,500 tonnes
of refined lead ingots on Nov 16, the country's top planning
body, the National Development and Reform Commission, said.
The auction will be the third sale of base metals reserves
in as many weeks, after the government offered 96,000 tonnes of
aluminium and 50,000 tonnes of zinc for sale.
The release of metal is equivalent to twice the nation's
imports in the first nine months of the year and 8 percent of
the China's monthly production. [ID:nBJI002441]
The SRB sold zinc stocks at around 19,700 yuan a tonne in a
public auction in Beijing, a discount of around 1,000 yuan from
futures prices.
The zinc was sold in the morning session of the auction,
and it will continue in the afternoon. The SRB plans to sell a
total of 50,000 tonnes of zinc ingots on Tuesday.
[ID:nBIG9ME60C]
Base metals prices at 0432 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 YTD pct
chg
LME Cu 8760.25 100.25 +1.16 7375.00
18.78
SHFE Cu* 67530.00 1150.00 +1.73 59900.00
12.74
LME Alum 2442.25 13.25 +0.55 2230.00
9.52
SHFE Alum* 16945.00 100.00 +0.59 17160.00
-1.25
COMEX Cu** 396.30 1.05 +0.27 332.75
19.10
LME Zinc 2530.00 51.00 +2.06 2560.00
-1.17
SHFE Zinc 20740.00 435.00 +2.14 21195.00
-2.15
LME Nickel 24350.00 225.00 +0.93 18525.00
31.44
LME Lead 2534.25 30.25 +1.21 2432.00
4.20
LME Tin 26700.00 105.00 +0.39 16950.00
57.52
LME/Shanghai arb^ 772
Dollar/yuan 6.6639 \ 6.6644
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month
(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)