MUMBAI (Commodity Online): Having witnessed positive momentum in the opening week of the month of November, most agro-commodities scaled fresh highs on the commexes posting heavy returns for the investors. Potato led the uptrend with gains of over 6% for the week during 1st November to 6th November 2010, while energy products and bullion maintained lower profile. Crude Oil prices gained over 5% by the weekend. The Federal Reserve's plan to pump more money into the economy to speed up recovery and stronger-than-expected rise in US jobs remained supportive for crude oil, a weekly report from the NCDEX Institute of Commodities Market and Research (NICR) noted. The weekly returns of select commodities, a set of agricultural, metals and energy products based on their spot prices are calculated to look at the performance of commodities as an investment alternative. The week marked festivities and celebration of Diwali and witnessed positive movements in majority of the commodities of the select commodity basket. Among bullion, Silver prices scaled new highs while gold shine bright during the festival of lights. Silver gained close to 5%, while gold was less attractive during the week with gains of less than 1%. Grains prices remained stable during the week ending 6th November. According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, export of oilmeals for the month of October 2010 is reported 498,159 tons compared to 309,886 tons in October 2009 i.e. up by 61% and the overall export of oilmeals for April- October 2010 is reported at 1,874,368 tons compared to 1,543,847 tons i.e. up 21%. Export of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal jumped to nearly double compare to October 2009, there has been gradual improvement in market in last two months due to drought in Russia. This helped the country to liquidate the most of carry over stock of soybean too. The export of oilmeals and crushing was also supported by good crush margin in last two months, due to better oil prices. All these positive factors boosted overall meal export in October 2010, according to the Association. All spices remained in the positive zone however red chili scored the highest on the returns score card in the spices complex. There is reportedly good export demand for the red pungent spice. Crop failure in China and Pakistan along with the present lower rates prevailing in the Indian markets has been the major factors supporting the Indian rates. Pepper prices continued its positive momentum on tight supply situation amid strong demand for the winter, Christmas and the New Year in the major consuming countries. Weekly return for each commodity is calculated as In (price on w/price on w-1) where w is the weekend day and w-1 is the weekend day of previous week. There are a number of factors that affect the returns of the commodities which not only emanate from the domestic front but also reflect the global demand-supply equations. While it is true that the returns delivered in the past are not a reflection or indication of the returns that would accrue in the future, it is nevertheless interesting to compare the same and analyze these differences.

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