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RTRS: FOREX-Dollar firm but shies at chart hurdles on euro
 
By Ian Chua and Charlotte Cooper
SYDNEY/TOKYO, Nov 10 (Reuters) - The dollar's sharp rebound
paused on Wednesday as the greenback faltered at significant
chart resistance levels and precious metals, which had fallen
sharply and given it a boost, began to recover.
The euro, which lost 1 percent on Tuesday as euro zone debt
concerns pressured it, twice bounced off support at $1.3735
although its recovery was limited, while the dollar failed to
push through a significant barrier at 82.00 yen.
One dealer said the greenback ran into selling by a
short-term player as it neared 82.00 yen, with Japanese exporter
sell orders lined up at that level and above also expected to
prove a hurdle to its rebound.
Still, it has recovered close to important chart levels which
could indicate a sharper comeback if they give way. The euro has
key support at $1.3700, with a break there opening up the
possibility of a test down to $1.3365 EUR=.
"If you look at the last few days, the dollar has gained some
traction," said Mitul Kotecha, global head of FX strategy at
Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
"It seems like a credible bounce back. I don't see it going
too far but it shows you how short the market was."
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury bond yields jumped on Tuesday and
the market will be watching an auction of 30-year debt later on
Wednesday to see if demand is lean.
"The ultimate theme of the market is U.S. interest rates,"
said a trader at a Japanese bank. "If U.S. bond yields rise
further after today's auction the dollar could see more upside."
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
G20 battle lines: r.reuters.com/jux34q
Basel III; rule reshaping: r.reuters.com/zys68p
Gold price performance: link.reuters.com/juz44q
Greek, Irish bond yield spread: r.reuters.com/tuk54q
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
The dollar index .DXY, which tracks the greenback's
performance against a basket of major currencies, rose as high as
77.88 -- a level not seen since Oct. 28.
It was last at 77.80 and faces major resistance in the
78.27-36 band, where a break would signal its fall has bottomed
out at least for the near term. Support lies at 77.30-40.
The euro fell as low as $1.3735 EUR=, down almost 4
percent from last week's peak around $1.4283. It edged back to
$1.3755, down 0.2 percent on the day in highly choppy trading
which also saw it gain as far as $1.3794.
A near-term risk for the euro is a Portuguese government bond
auction later on Wednesday.
Portugal, seen by markets as a possible candidate for a
Greek-style bailout, is scheduled to sell up to 1.25 billion
euros ($1.72 billion) of government debt. [ID:nLDE6A71OG]
The premium investors demand to hold Irish and Portuguese
debt over benchmark German bunds has blown out to euro lifetime
highs and traders said the European Central Bank was again
forced to step in on Monday to calm the market.
"The euro chart is not looking pretty. A rise in U.S. yields
is undermining the euro and now we have Ireland and Portugal
issues. The euro does not have positive factors on its own," the
Japanese bank trader said.
Part of the dollar's climb on Tuesday came from a vicious
reversal in silver XAG=, which rippled through the commodity
sector [ID:nLDE6A81AL]. Investors have been borrowing in dollars
to fund leveraged positions and the pullback in prices forced
some to liquidate positions and buy back the currency.
Gold and silver were both edging up on Wednesday although the
rebound lost a bit of steam.
Feeding into investor caution was data showing China's
exports and imports grew slightly less than expected in October,
while comments by an adviser to China's central bank that it
should shift its monetary policy stance to "prudent" from
appropriately loose next year weighed on the Australian dollar.
The Aussie, which briefly dipped below parity on Tuesday,
eased slightly to $1.0029 AUD=D4, down about 2 percent from a
28-year peak above $1.0180 set this month.
The New Zealand dollar AUD=D4, which fell 1.3 percent on
Tuesday, was further hit by dovish comments by Reserve Bank of
New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard, who said the strength of the
local dollar could limit future interest rate rises.
[ID:nSGE6A801S]
Already weighed down by media reports of a U.S. ban on New
Zealand's kiwi fruit vines, the NZ dollar fell 0.3 percent to
$0.7755 NZD=D4, down 3 percent from a 31-month high
near $0.7980 set last week. [ID:nSGE6A80CM]
A move by a Chinese credit ratings agency to cut the U.S.
sovereign credit rating underscored growing tension between
Beijing and Washington over economic policy ahead of a Group of
20 leaders summit on Thursday and Friday in Seoul.
Sterling was steady GBP=D4 after breaching support at
$1.6000 to stand at $1.5984. Sterling's near-term fortunes hinge
on a Bank of England inflation report due at 1030 GMT.
Markets are still betting the central bank may eventually
expand its 200 billion pound ($320 billion) asset purchase
programme, although recently firm data have reduced expectations
of such a move. [ID:nLDE6A71JF]
($1=.7270 Euro; $1=.6253 Pound)
(Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano and contributions by
Reuters FX analysts Krishna Kumar in Sydney and Rick Lloyd in
Singapore; Editing by Michael Watson)
Source