BLBG: Dollar May Gain Versus Yen on Trend Break, SocGen Says: Technical Analysis
The dollar may rise to a level against the yen last reached in September should it stay above a critical trend line, according to Societe Generale SA.
The U.S. currency broke yesterday above the trend line connecting highs reached May 5, June 4 and Sept. 16-17, and doing so again today and tomorrow may indicate a move toward its 100-day moving average of 84.66 yen, said Carl Forcheski, a director on the corporate currency sales desk at Societe Generale SA in New York, in a telephone interview. The dollar last traded at that level on Sept. 24.
The dollar fell 3.8 percent against the yen in October and dropped 0.8 percent in September on speculation increased debt purchases by the Federal Reserve under quantitative easing would debase the greenback.
“The Fed’s quantitative easing was largely discounted in the move from the middle of September through the end of September,” Forcheski said. “The dollar’s adjustment downward was occurring. This could be some general dollar correction.”
The greenback has appreciated 1.7 percent against its Japanese counterpart since Nov. 3, when the Fed announced an additional $600 billion in debt purchases through June.
The dollar gained 0.2 percent to 82.46 yen at 10:03 a.m. in New York, from 82.28 yesterday, when it touched 82.80 yesterday, the highest level since Oct. 7.
The U.S. currency needs to rise above a range of 82.50 to 83.25 yen today and tomorrow to break through the trend line, according to Forcheski.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
To contact the reporter on this story: Catarina Saraiva in New York at asaraiva5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net