BLBG: Copper May Drop Next Week After Advancing to Record Price, Survey Shows
Copper may drop as investors judge that the metal’s climb to a record level leaves prices no longer reflecting the outlook for demand, a survey showed.
Eight of 15 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg, or 53 percent, said the metal will fall next week. Seven predicted higher prices. Copper for delivery in three months was up 2.4 percent for this week at $8,865 a metric ton at 1 p.m. yesterday on the London Metal Exchange after reaching an all-time high of $8,966.
“All of these commodities are in unsustainable price bubbles,” said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York.
LME copper’s 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of whether a commodity is overbought or oversold, rose above 69.5 this week, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. That’s near the level of 70 viewed by some analysts who study technical charts as signaling a potential impending drop. The metal touched its previous peak of $8,940 a ton in July 2008.
The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling the majority of respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the copper price. The survey data shown are as of Nov. 5.
The weekly copper survey has forecast prices accurately in 52 of the past 111 weeks, or 47 percent of the time.
This week’s survey results: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 8
To contact the reporter on this story: Maria Kolesnikova in Moscow at mkolesnikova@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter@bloomberg.net.