WSJ: Australian Dollar Down Late, At Lowest Level In 2 Weeks
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The Australian dollar fell broadly in Asia trade Monday as Europe's debt problems continued a move into safe-haven assets.
Even with the U.S. dollar and other safe-haven assets up since Friday, Australian bonds also fell. Traders said the moves reflected a broader unwinding of trades, when buying equities and buying for yield dominated the action.
"This is the anti-(Federal Reserve quantitative easing) trade; all the trades which worked leading up to Nov. 3 are now being taken off. And this could unwind a lot further," said Matthew Johnson, an interest rate strategist with UBS in Sydney, who called the action part of a massive global positioning move.
In terms of the Australian dollar's move, sentiment across Asia was cautious, given concerns over the health of European sovereign debt and worries about the possibility of further China monetary policy tightening as Beijing faces the potential for inflation and asset price bubbles.
Given that overhang, Joseph Capurso, currency strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the Australian dollar decline would likely continue in the short term.
"We think (the Australian dollar) will continue to ease because U.S. government bond yields are rising, Europe's debt problems are leading to heightened demand for the (U.S. dollar) against all currencies and concerns that rate rises in China will cut commodity demand," said Capurso.
At 0520 GMT, the Australian dollar traded at US$0.9849, down from US$0.9937 late Friday and at its lowest level in two weeks. Against the Japanese yen, the currency traded at Y81.43, from Y81.89.
National Australia Bank Foreign Exchange Strategist John Kyriakapoulos is particularly bearish in the short term, suggesting traders sell Australian dollars and only re-establish a long position on a decline in the US$0.9370-US$0.9410 area.
On top of the broader global concerns, there is local data likely to impact trading this week, including minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest board meeting to be released Tuesday, and a speech from RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino on Thursday.
The RBA minutes are particularly interesting given the country's central bank surprised the market earlier this month by raising its key benchmark rate 25 basis points to 4.75%, marking the central bank's first interest rate move since May. Altogether, the central bank has now raised rates seven times in 13 months, although recent market pricing has downplayed the likelihood of another hike in December.
On Monday, the 30-day interbank futures market was pricing in about a 5% chance of a rate hike in December.
In the interest rate futures market, the three-year bond lost six ticks to 94.84, while 10-year bond futures slid seven ticks to 94.57.
--By Geoffrey Rogow, Dow Jones Newswires; +61-2-8272-4686; geoffrey.rogow@dowjones.com