Quad-City area farmers were anticipating a great corn crop this year, and very good soybean crop, said Taylor Ridge, Ill., farmer Tom Mueller.
It isn’t turning out that way, he said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, or NASS, has lowered the national corn and soybean production estimates in its November report.
Production estimates for both Iowa’s and Illinois’ corn crop were lower in the November report than they were in the October report. The soybean production estimates in both states remained unchanged in the November report.
Nationally, the November crop production forecast indicates corn production in the U.S. will be 12.5 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast, according to the NASS report. The number is down 4 percent from last year’s record production of 13.1 billion bushels.
Nationally, soybean production is forecast at 3.38 billion bushels. That is down 1 percent from the October forecast but still a record high production, and it is slightly above last year’s production.
In Iowa, estimated corn production fell from 2.213 billion bushels in the October report, to 2.187 billion bushels in the November report.
In Illinois, corn production fell from 1.984 billion bushels in October, to 1.971 billion bushels in November, according to the NASS report.
The soybean production estimate for both states was unchanged, with Iowa’s remaining at just more than 512 million bushels, and Illinois’ holding at slightly more than 470.5 million bushels.
“This was a good corn crop, but it was supposed to be a great corn crop,” Mueller said.
Because it was a wet summer, Mueller said this crop “got more water than it needed.”
Worse, it was just too hot, he said.
“It never cooled off at night,” Mueller said. That hurt the ability of the corn to recover from the hot days, he said. Consequently, the ears of the corn didn’t fill.
“Everybody was anticipating this big crop, and it just wasn’t there,” he said. “We all thought the genetics of this corn made it infallible, but it wasn’t. Mother Nature still had her way.
“My crop was below average, and my bean crop wasn’t that great either.”
One of the problems with his beans is a problem many farmers had to deal with this year: sudden death.
“I had planted my beans early, and they got hit by sudden death,” Mueller said. “I’m probably between 10 and 15 bushels under the other crops that were planted later.”
New Liberty, Iowa, farmer Bryan Sievers said he had a very good soybean crop overall. Some of his soybeans suffered sudden death, but other fields turned out well.
But his corn crop is another story.
“My corn crop was significantly less than last year,” Sievers said. “We were probably down 40 bushels an acre.”
What is making farmers smile, for the moment at least, are the prices they are receiving for their commodities.
On the futures market, corn has been more than $5 a bushel as of late, while soybeans were above the $13 mark for several days before falling back into the $12 range Friday.
Commodities from crude oil to soybeans and corn fell Friday after China indicated it might raise interest rates to curb the country’s inflation.
Still, farmers are pleased with the prices for now, but it is a volatile market, said farmer Robb Ewoldt, president of the Scott County Farm Bureau.
“China is buying beans, big time,” he said. “But no one knows how much more they need to buy. I don’t think they’ve been honest on how their crops went this year. China keeps their cards close to the vest. You never know what they’re going to do.”
A big question as to future soybean prices will be the South American crop, he said.
Sievers said that China knows how to play the markets. After the Chinese let it leak about the possibility of higher interest rates in their country, commodity prices fell.
But, Sievers said, “China also bought a lot of beans Friday, too.”
Soybean prices also were pushed higher last week after NASS lowered the U.S. carry-over stocks of beans from 265 million bushels to 185 million bushels.
“That’s pretty tight,” Mueller said of the soybean stocks.
However, if commodity prices get too high, the market will cool, Mueller said.
“Once you brush up against $6 corn, it will slow demand,” he said. “There’s an old saying that the best thing for high prices is high prices. That’s what eventually will bring things back down.”
