BS: Dollar Advances to Five-Week High Versus Yen on Recovery Signs
Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar climbed above 83 yen for the first time in more than five weeks as rising bond yields and signs U.S. economic growth is gathering pace boosted demand for the greenback.
The U.S. currency rose versus most of its major counterparts before reports this week forecast to show retail sales increased for a fourth month and consumer prices rose. The euro fell versus the dollar on concern Ireland may need a bailout. The pound slipped versus the dollar as U.K. home sellers cut asking prices by the most since 2007.
“As a basic backdrop, positive U.S. economic data support the dollar,” said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London. “U.S. consumer prices and retail sales are likely to be strong, which will boost demand for dollars. Until we get a clear decision on Ireland, we’ll continue to see downward pressure on the euro.”
The dollar gained 0.5 percent to 82.96 yen at 7:35 a.m. in New York, from 82.53 yen on Nov. 12, after reaching 83.03 yen, the highest level since Oct. 7. The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.3631, from $1.3691, after dropping 2.4 percent last week in its biggest five-day decline since August. The yen was little changed at 113.05 per euro, compared with 113.02.
U.S. retail sales gained 0.7 percent in October after rising 0.6 percent in the previous month, according to the median forecast of 67 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The report from the Commerce Department is due at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Consumer prices increased 0.3 percent last month after rising 0.1 percent in September, a report from the Labor Department is expected to show on Nov. 17.
U.S. Yields Rise
Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields increased 0.05 percentage point to 2.83 percent after reaching 2.84 percent, the highest level since Sept. 13.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said the central bank may need to tighten monetary policy even with the U.S. unemployment rate elevated to avoid a surge in inflation similar to the acceleration in the 1970s.
“At some point in the not-too-distant future, we are likely to face an economy growing in a self-sustaining way while the unemployment rate is still relatively high by historical standards,” Lacker said yesterday in a speech in Richmond, Virginia. “The decisions we make at that time will be the true test of whether we’ve learned our lessons.”
The Fed said on Nov. 3 that it would buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June, expanding record stimulus to try to reduce the 9.6 percent unemployment rate and keep inflation from slowing.
Drop in Pound
Sterling dropped 0.3 percent to $1.6067 as Rightmove Plc, the operator of Britain’s biggest property website, said the average asking prices for homes in England and Wales fell 3.2 percent this month to 229,379 pounds ($371,000). That’s the biggest monthly drop since December 2007.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, rose 0.4 percent to 78.422 today. It reached 78.562 earlier today, the highest level on almost six weeks.
The yen dropped 0.7 percent to 81.81 versus the Australian dollar and slid 0.6 percent against the New Zealand currency as evidence of strength in the Asia-Pacific region reduced demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.
Japan’s gross domestic product expanded at an annualized 3.9 percent in the third quarter, the Cabinet Office said. The median forecast of 21 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 2.5 percent increase. New Zealand’s retail sales, adjusted for inflation, increased 0.7 percent in the third quarter.
‘Concrete Steps’
Asia-Pacific leaders meeting yesterday in Japan pledged to take “concrete steps” toward creating a regional free-trade agreement without setting a target for achieving that goal. Their meeting followed a Nov. 11-12 Group of 20 summit in Seoul that “opposed protectionist trade actions” while failing to agree on a remedy for trade and investment distortions.
European discussions in Brussels on financial support for Ireland tomorrow may boost the euro against the dollar, according to Citigroup Inc.
“Markets are likely to view an aid package for Ireland as euro-positive since it would likely remove the risk of an Irish default for the time being,” foreign-exchange strategists Steven Englander in New York and Todd Elmer in Singapore wrote in an investor note today. “Even if European authorities provided blanket assistance, the overall fiscal stance would be better than that of the U.S. Dips approaching recent lows in euro-dollar may represent buying opportunities.”
An Irish finance ministry spokesman said via e-mail yesterday that “ongoing contacts continue at official level with international colleagues in light of current market conditions.” The nation “has made no application for external support,” and the government is “fully funded till well into 2011,” the spokesman said.
The yield difference, or spread, between Irish 10-year securities and comparable benchmark German bunds reached the highest ever last week before narrowing.
--Editors: Dennis Fitzgerald, Matthew Brown
To contact the reporters on this story: Keith Jenkins in London at Kjenkins3@bloomberg.net; Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Tilles at dtilles@bloomberg.net