IBT: Oil Price Movements Diverge as Cushing Stock Jumped
Gold prices rose but gains were modest although fighting in Libya escalated and sovereign crisis concerns in the European periphery heightened. Strength in the US dollar limited the metal's rally. The benchmark Comex contract settled at 1429.6, up +0.17%. Oil price movements diverged with the front-month contract for WTI crude oils slipped -0.61% while corresponding Brent crude contract jumped +2.55% after falling for 2 days. Bigger-than-expected crude stock-builds and further increase in Cushing stock damped WTI crude prices.
More oil facilities were damaged in Libya as forces supporting Gaddafi bombed oil tanks at the Es Sider oil terminal in their campaign to retake eastern Libya. Ras Lanuf, the country's largest oil refinery, was shut with labors evacuated as fighting between government armies and rebels intensified. Indeed, Libya has been effectively out of the oil market since protests erupted. The lost crude supply has been substituted by Saudi Arabia. While the market had expected the OPEC to pump more, member nations generally do not see the need to do so. Youcef Yousfi, Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mines. There's no need for an emergency meeting to be held right now, before the June general meeting. According to Yousfi, the cartel does not 'see any physical shortage of oil in the market' and nor 'any need for OPEC to meet today unless there is a change'. Meanwhile, Angolan Oil Minister Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos also stated the OPEC would wait to see how Libya's unrest evolves.
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Recent spikes in oil prices have heightened global inflation pressures. While the ECB signaled it may raise the main refinancing rate in April, the RBNZ adopted a rate cut of -50 bps at its March meeting, taking the OCR to 2.5%. The earthquake that struck Queensland in February has 'negatively impacted' New Zealand's economic activity. Business and consumer confidence has also been 'deteriorated'. Policymakers revised lower their growth forecasts. The economy will likely contract -0.1% for the year to March 2011, before expanding +5.4% for the year to March 2012. Inflation outlook is largest unchanged.
The BOE will likely leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset-buying program at 200B pound. On the dataflow, US' initially jobless claims probably rose +10K to 378K in the week ended March 5. Trade deficits might have widened to 41.3B in January from 40.6B I the prior month. Earlier in the day, China unexpected reported a trade deficit of 7.3B in February, compared with consensus of a 4.9B surplus and an 11.9B surplus in the prior month. The figure should in the near-term soothe international pressure on RMB appreciation.