Asia-Europe shipping line bunker surcharges have jumped by almost 20% since October, and there are concerns they could increase further.
According Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, the average bunker adjustment factor levied by shipping lines in March on imports into Northern Europe is US$588 per teu, an increase of 18% since October.
It said this was down to the price of crude oil reaching its highest level for two years at the end of February.
And there are concerns the price could be driven higher because political instability could interrupt supplies from the Middle East and North Africa.
“Drewry’s view is that so long as political uncertainty continues in the Middle East, bunker costs will remain high, and could rise further,” it said.
“An escalation in the political turmoil, such as a closure of the Suez Canal, would have a particularly damaging effect, both in terms of cost and supply.
“Europe is reliant on Suez transits for around 15% of its crude, while Libya accounts for a further 10%.
“When, and if, social unrest stabilises one can expect bunker prices to return to near normal levels.”
Drewry’s latest estimate is for BAF prices on the trade between South China and North Europe to rise by between 7% and 9% annually over the next three years.
