BLBG: Crude Oil Falls for Fourth Day in New York on Outlook for Libyan Conflict
Oil fell for a fourth day in New York after Libyan rebels advanced against Muammar Qaddafi’s troops, bolstering speculation the conflict in Africa’s third- largest crude producer may be resolved soon.
Futures are in the longest losing streak in two weeks after rebel forces pushed westward with support from Allied air strikes on Sirte, Qaddafi’s hometown, as leaders of France and the U.K. said the Libyan leader “must go immediately.” Crude has rallied 23 percent since anti-government protests began Feb. 15 in the country, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
“Speculation that territorial gains by Libyan rebels could speed up a resolution and active discussions to have sanctions lifted on purchases of crude produced from Libyan fields no longer in Qaddafi’s control removed some of the supply risk premium from the market,” Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne said in an e-mailed note.
Crude for May delivery fell as much as 80 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $103.18 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $103.40 at 12:24 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract dropped $1.42 to $103.98, the lowest settlement since March 22. Futures have gained 13 percent between January and March, a third quarterly increase.
Brent crude for May settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange dropped as much as 75 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $114.05 a barrel. Yesterday, it declined 79 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $114.80.
Uprising
Libya’s civil war is the bloodiest in a wave of uprisings that has toppled the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt and spread to Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Oman, Syria and Yemen.
OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world’s crude, won’t need to compensate for a drop in Libyan output, according to Algerian Oil Minister Youcef Yousfi. Current oil prices are “not driven by fundamentals,” said Ali Al-Yabhouni, the United Arab Emirates governor to the 12-member group.
Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, probably gained for a fourth week as imports rose ahead of the peak gasoline demand season, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Commercially held inventories climbed 2 million barrels in the week ended March 25, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Supplies previously increased to 352.8 million, the highest since December, as imports reached a six-week high.
The highest U.S. gasoline prices since October 2008 may be raising concern over economic growth, another Bloomberg News survey showed. The Conference Board today may report its index of consumer confidence fell to 65 this month from 70.4 in February, based on the median of 68 economist estimates.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Clyde Russell at crussell7@bloomberg.net