Philip Roth, Chief Technical Analyst, Miller Tabak, in an interview on CNBC-TV18 spoke about his outlook on the dollar and euro. He also spoke on commodities and said he sees gold looking good from a long-term basis. Below is a verbatim transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee. For complete details watch the accompanying videos. Q: What are you seeing in the global market situation and in the technical’s out there? A: Prior to the problems in the Middle East and prior to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the index was faltering after having had a big run on the upside. It was preparing for some correction. Then when we had the news of so much unsettlement in the Middle East and the problems in Japan, the correction that was due was sped up. So we had a sharp shake out. Now we are able to have a sharp rebound through last week. The overall pattern for the last month or six weeks is consolidation in a mature medium term advance. The market is in a position to challenge or slightly exceed the recent highs. I don’t see another big sustained move without more preparation but a slight new high is possible. Q: The S&P has been remarkably strong above its 50 day moving average (DMA) ever since it recovered from it. What kind of levels do you see on that index and how much more upside for the market itself? A: To answer the second part of that question first, no, with a capital ‘N’. The market has had a huge run since the lows in March of 2009. I see this as a mature uptrend. I don’t think the probabilities of increase for advanced. We have already had a huge advance for the S&P where there is resistance in the 1,330-1,340 area. For the Dow Jones industrial average there is resistance in the 12,300-12,400 area. Both of those resistance areas can be bettered by a little bit maybe 3-4-5% but we should view this cyclical bull market as in the very mature stages. Q: What do you see in commodities in that case? A: The commodity markets are acting very much like the equity markets because the play is the same. Stocks have been going up especially cyclically sensitive stocks like basic materials in energy because investors are anticipating strengthening in the global economy. Of course a strengthening in the global economy is bullish for most commodities, certainly for the base metals. I don’t see a big move up right now but the long-term patterns are favorable in the metals. I like the metal stocks as well. Interestingly, the best looking chart of all the metals is the least economically sensitive and that is gold. Another message besides strengthening global economy is a global debauching of currencies with all the central bankers concerned with growth, nobody is concerned with inflation. Gold looks very good on a long -erm basis. Q: What about the dollar index? That has been subdued and rangebound. Do you see any major volatility creeping into that over the next few weeks? A: Using the dollar index the DXY, I see it as oversold following a -term decline. The long-term pattern is weak, however, we are moving into an area of longer-term support. It looks to me as if we should be expecting the dollar to be stabilizing in coming months and maybe staging some recovery. A lot of the weakness in the dollar has been reflected in the strength in the euro which to me makes very little sense. People were trying to sell the dollar and there are not too many ways you can do that. One way would be to buy the euro but the euro has gone to unrealistically high levels. I would be expecting over time the dollar to improve relative to the euro, especially relative to the yen. It looks to me like the yen has made an important peak. Q: Would you see the Indian market as having slightly different characteristics or is it going to follow the global pattern? A: No. it goes pretty much for the Indian markets as well. We had a nice correction for a few months and that build up enough of an oversold condition and enough compression to produce a rally back to the highs or slighter new highs. But the huge advance in 2010 will require a much longer consolidation. We want to be disciplined when you get pullbacks and I think you can step up.

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