BLBG: Gold May Gain Next Week on Inflation, European Debt Concerns, Survey Shows
Gold may extend gains from a record as concern about inflation and European debt spur demand for an alternative investment, a survey found.
Fifteen of 18 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 83 percent, said bullion will rise next week. Two predicted lower prices and one was neutral. Gold for June delivery was up 2 percent for this week at $1,457.40 an ounce by 11:53 a.m. yesterday on the Comex in New York, after reaching a record $1,466.50 earlier in the day.
“The threat of sovereign debt contagion in the euro zone should keep investors sufficiently interested in the safe-haven aspect of precious metals,” said Marc Ground, an analyst at Standard Bank Plc in Johannesburg. “This should provide the potential for further upside.”
The European Central Bank yesterday lifted interest rates for the first time in almost three years to quell inflation even as Portugal seeks a bailout, becoming the third euro-region country to need a rescue. China this week increased rates to combat rising consumer prices. Fighting in Libya and the aftermath of Japan’s earthquake last month helped push gold to a record. An earthquake registered northeast of Tokyo yesterday.
“As far as gold is concerned, inflation fears are dominating the daily agenda,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London.
The attached chart tracks the results of the Bloomberg survey, with the red bars derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates. Readings below zero signal that most respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the gold price. The data are as of April 1.
The weekly gold survey that started almost seven years ago has forecast prices accurately in 204 of 357 weeks, or 57 percent of the time.
This week’s survey results: Bullish: 15 Bearish: 2 Neutral: 1
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.