RTRS: Euro s-term rates resilient to Greek woes for now
By Marius Zaharia
LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) - European money markets are seen
resilient for now in the face of growing talk of a potential
restructuring of Greek government debt, but short-term rates
could spike if such a move appeared imminent.
Yields on government bonds issued by the most indebted euro
zone states have risen over the past few days after Germany
acknowledged for the first time that Greece may need to
restructure its debt. [ID:nLDE73D05J]
But traders said there was no sign of stress in repo or
money markets because investors believed such a move, although
seen as likely eventually, would not happen in the short term.
"On one hand markets are playing the restructuring story,
Greek yields are definitely not normal and price in some form of
restructuring," said Kornelius Purps, a UniCredit strategist.
"What (markets) are not playing is the ... possible
ramification for the banking sector."
Purps said that interbank lending would probably freeze
immediately if concrete steps were taken towards restructuring,
due to uncertainty over "who is going to be hit and by how
much". Money market rates would probably spike like they did at
the start of the financial crisis and Eonia rates could "even
quadruple from one day to another", he said.
But traders said there was no sign that interbank markets
were heading towards that scenario yet.
"If the debate evolves from 'if' to 'how' to (restructure
Greek debt) we can expect some stress in repo markets and
widening in short-term interest rates," one trader said.
BETTER POSITIONED
Some analysts said the interbank system was in a better
position to cope with shocks now than it was at the start of the
financial crisis.
"If there is a crisis we know that the European Central Bank
will provide banks with unlimited funding. This will be a
shield," said Barclays Capital strategist Giuseppe Maraffino.
ECB executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said this
week that a Greek restructuring would be a "catastrophe", but
some analysts believe a major impact on interbank markets could
be avoided if a restructuring was done in an orderly way.
"Because we believe a debt restructuring cannot occur over
the next two or three years, I think money markets cannot be
affected at this current point," said BNP Paribas rate
strategist Matteo Regesta.
"In the base case scenario, what you get is a communication
policy which means that markets gradually adjust to the event.
If the debt restructuring programme is properly announced and
gradually fazed I would not expect an abrupt squeeze."
Regesta said a rise in Eonia euro overnight rates EONIA=
over the past few days had nothing to do with the sovereign woes
and it was just a result of banks depositing reserves with the
ECB at the start of a new maintenance period.
"The current level of Eonia is simply a function of banks
front-loading reserves," Regesta said. "I expect Eonia to stay
between 1.10-1.17 percent (next) week and gradually decrease
afterwards," he said, adding that it could fall towards 80-85
bps after Easter, as banks meet their reserve targets.
Eonia was at 1.146 percent on Thursday, up from 1.139
percent. In normal liquidity conditions, Eonia trades just above
the refi rate which is currently at 1.25 percent, but Reuters
calculations show excess liquidity in the money markets is
currently at around 21 billion euros.