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RTRS: METALS-Copper ticks up; China policy eyed, technicals point higher
 
* Copper prices rise 0.4 pct, LME seen $9,000-$10,180
* Aluminium seen outperforming in Q2 on energy costs
* Coming Up: Euro zone consumer confidence for April; 1400
GMT

(Updates prices, adds quotes and details)
By Nick Trevethan
SINGAPORE, April 18 (Reuters) - Copper prices reversed early
losses on Monday, focusing on a more positive technical outlook,
with some in the market viewing Sunday's reserve ratio hike as a
step closer to the end of the monetary tightening cycle in
China.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose
$30 to $9,435 a tonne by 0348 GMT. Shanghai's most-active June
copper futures contract SCFcv1 rose 280 yuan to 71,110 yuan a
tonne, after ending last week down 3.5 percent, its biggest
weekly drop in a month.
"Each time China raises rates, the market reacts less and
less. The level of inflation is still of great concern, but each
increases in interest rates and ratios takes us closer to the
end of the tightening cycle," said a trader in Hong Kong.
China's central bank said on Sunday it would raise lenders'
required reserves by 50 basis points, the fourth time this year
it has made such a move.
The move increases the required reserve ratio for the
country's biggest banks to a record 20.5 percent, another step
in the government's campaign to control inflation.
[ID:nB9E7FC011]
Technically, copper prices could rebound to $9,500, Reuters
analyst Wang Tao said, based on an Elliott wave analysis of
short-term market behaviour.
here
"LME prices are basically still in their rangebound trading
pattern and that will continue this week," said Judy Zhu, a
commodity analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.
She expected copper to trade below February's record high of
$10,180, with an initial floor at $9,000 and further support at
$8,800.
She added that the reserve ratio hike and comments from the
People's Bank of China on the chances of further tightening
would continue to cap prices in the second quarter, while the
prospects of a weakening dollar were supportive.
"The likely result is metals will trade in tight ranges."
Over the weekend, the PBOC's chief said the more prudential
policy would continue for a while and also that inflation
remains higher than the government is comfortable with.
Data on Friday showed Chinese consumer price inflation rose
to 5.4 percent in the year to March, its highest in almost three
years. [ID:nLDE73E0A2]
Copper may also see pressure after the International Copper
Study Group (ICSG) trimmed its 2011 global copper market deficit
forecast to 377,000 tonnes, about 20,000 tonnes narrower than
its previous forecast in October 2010. [ID:nN15530994]
"There wasn't that much positive news on Friday. Aluminium
especially was a bit of a surprise, up 1.6 percent in spite of
the predominantly bearish numbers," a Sydney-based trader said.
Aluminium ticked up $1.50 to $2,691.50 a tonne.
"Aluminium is in a healthy upward trend and if oil prices
stay high, it will be very supportive. Energy makes up 30
percent of input costs," StanChart's Zhu said.
Oil prices in London and New York fell on Monday but at
$123.07 a barrel for Brent LCOc1 and $109 for WTI CLc1, were
near recent 32-month highs.
Zinc rose $1.75 to $2,399.75. Technically, the
upside for zinc may be capped in the near term, said chartist
Daryl Guppy of Guppytraders.com.
"Zinc is constrained in the upper section of a broad trading
band. Resistance is near $2,600. Support is near $2,200. A
breakout above resistance has a target near $3,000."

Base metals prices at 0348 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move YTD pct chg
LME Cu 9435.00 30.00 +0.32 -1.72
SHFE CU FUT JUN1 71110 280 +0.40 -1.03
LME Alum 2691.50 1.50 +0.06 8.97
SHFE AL FUT JUN1 16735 25 +0.15 -0.62
HG COPPER MAY1 427.85 -2.65 +0.49 -3.63
LME Zinc 2399.75 1.75 +0.07 -2.21
SHFE ZN FUT JUN1 18290 20 +0.11 -6.08
LME Nickel 26300.00 145.00 +0.55 6.26
LME Lead 2652.00 1.00 +0.04 4.00
SHFE PB FUT SEP1 18600 20 +0.11 1.36
LME Tin 32701.00 -399.00 -1.21 21.57
LME/Shanghai arb 1028
Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month
Shanghai lead launched on March 24

(Additional reporting by Carrie Ho; Editing by Michael
Urquhart)
Source