BLBG: Gold, Near Record, Trades Little Changed as Investors Watch Fed Meeting
Gold may advance in New York after reaching a record two days ago as investors watched for signals on the dollar and interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting.
The dollar reached its lowest level in more than 2 1/2 years against a basket of six currencies earlier today on speculation the Fed will consider further easing measures to support the economy after its bond-buying program expires in June. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 10 percent in the past year as the Fed has kept interest rates near zero and bought Treasuries. The greenback fell to a 16-month low against the euro.
“A lot of gold buyers will be waiting for signals from the Fed,” said Bernard Dahdah, a London-based analyst at Natixis Commodity Markets Ltd. Any indications “on currency and interest rates could highly affect the price of gold. For the next weeks we view gold as being driven by the dollar.”
Bullion for June delivery rose $5.30, or 0.4 percent, to $1,508.80 an ounce by 8:09 a.m. on the Comex in New York. The metal touched a record $1,519.20 on April 25. Immediate-delivery gold gained 0.2 percent to $1,508.88 an ounce in London, after falling and rising as much as 0.3 percent.
“Right now, the continuous dollar weakness keeps supporting prices above $1,500, but the mark should be carefully watched,” Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by e-mail.
Dollar Weakness
Gold rallied 30 percent in the past year as sovereign-debt turmoil in Europe, accelerating inflation and fighting in Libya fueled demand. Standard & Poor’s on April 18 placed a negative outlook on the U.S.’s AAA ranking, citing a risk the nation will fail to deal with rising budget deficits, and boosting the appeal of bullion as an alternative to the dollar.
“Sovereign-debt concerns have not abated with the focus of attention now moving across the Atlantic following Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. outlook,” David Wilson, an analyst at Societe Generale SA, wrote in a note. Dollar weakness is “influential” in driving gold higher, Wilson said.
At the Fed meeting, policy makers will leave the target rate for overnight lending between banks at zero to 0.25 percent, according to all economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Fed may also say it plans to complete $600 billion in Treasury purchases in June, a program known as quantitative easing.
The Fed is due to release its policy statement at about 12:30 p.m. New York time, and Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is set to speak to reporters at 2:15 p.m. The media conference will be the first in a series of four a year, each after a policy meeting, in a bid by the bank to improve communication with the public.
‘See a Pullback’
Gold’s so-called 14-day relative strength index has traded at more than 70 since April 18, a reading that’s viewed by some analysts who study charts as a signal that the price may be set to drop.
“While we believe that gold can move higher than $1,500 later in the year, we believe fundamentally it should see a pullback first,” Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Plc, said in a note. There may be value in gold as it approaches $1,450, de Wet wrote.
Silver for July delivery rose 0.7 percent to $45.41 an ounce in New York. Platinum for July delivery gained 0.4 percent to $1812.10 an ounce, while palladium for June delivery declined 0.1 percent to $754.85 an ounce.
To contact the reporter on this story; Maria Kolesnikova in London at mkolesnikova@bloomberg.net; Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at kkim19@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.
