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NY: European Banks Stand Pat on Interest Rates-For Now
 
FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged Thursday, but was expected to signal that it will raise rates again as early as next month in response to growing inflation pressures.

The Bank of England also kept its main interest rate and bond purchasing program unchanged despite even worse inflation, amid signs that Britain’s economy was still too weak to cope with higher borrowing costs.

A month after delivering its first rate increase in almost three years, the European Central Bank’s governing council, meeting in Helsinki, left its main policy rate at 1.25 percent. The E.C.B. broke ranks with other major central banks in April when it raised the rate in April from a historic low of 1 percent, citing “upside risks to price stability.”

The Federal Reserve indicated last week it would keep interest rates low for longer to support the economic recovery in the United States.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the E.C.B. president, was to hold a press conference at 3:30 p.m. local time, during which analysts will be listening for code phrases indicating when the bank might act again to raise the cost of money to brake growth and ease price pressures.

If Mr. Trichet says that the bank has adopted a stance of “strong vigilance,” it will signal another rate hike in June, analysts said. If Mr. Trichet says the E.C.B. is “monitoring very closely” the development of prices, a rate hike is probably at least two months away.

So far E.C.B. policymakers do not seem to have heeded many critics who say it is premature to raise rates when Greece is teetering on the brink of default, and days after Portugal accepted a European rescue package. The E.C.B. is required by its charter to make price stability its top priority.

Recent data has probably reinforced the view among members of the governing council that inflation has become a greater risk. Prices rose at an estimated annual rate of 2.8 percent in April after rising to 2.7 percent in March, Eurostat, the European Union statistics office, said last week. That is well above the E.C.B.’s target of about 2 percent.

“Recent economic data will not have changed the current assessment that price stability risks remain on the upside — if anything they will have reinforced it,” analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland said in a note Wednesday.

At the same time, Portugal’s acceptance of a €78 billion, or $116 billion, bailout package on Tuesday served as a reminder of the financial peril that still faces the country, to say nothing of Greece and Ireland.

Other economic indicators have been sending mixed signals about the direction of the European economy. Signs of faster growth in France and even Spain have been offset by inklings of slower growth in Germany, as well as a slump in retail spending across the euro area.

Another source of uncertainty is the rise of the euro against the dollar, which has been fueled in part by expectations of higher interest rates. At about $1.49, the euro is at its highest level compared to the dollar since the end of 2009. A strong euro can hurt growth by making European exports more expensive abroad.

As a result, some analysts predict that the E.C.B. will move cautiously as it nudges the benchmark interest rate higher.

Analysts at Barclays Capital predicted that the E.C.B., which sets monetary policy for the 17 countries in the euro area, will wait until July before it acts again. Said Barclays in a note this week, “We think the governing council will choose to give itself a little more time to evaluate conditions in the weeks ahead.”

Britain’s central bank decided to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent despite an inflation rate that had reached double the bank’s 2 percent target. Recent economic data showed that growth had slowed, prompting some economists to cut their growth forecasts and predict a prolonged economic recovery. The Bank of England also kept its bond purchasing program at £200 billion, or $331 billion.

“The economy is very slow growing and a lot weaker because of the high levels of debt we have,” Erik Britton, a director at Fathom Consulting in London, said. “Now we have to live within our means and that will slow growth.”

Growth in services and manufacturing slowed more than some economists expected in April and a 0.5 percent growth in gross domestic product in the first quarter meant that the economy stagnated over the last six months. The government implemented the bulk of spending cuts and tax increases last month that were part of its plan to reduce most of the budget deficit by 2015. The deficit was at a record 11 percent of gross domestic product last year.

The Bank of England governor Mervyn King had warned previously that inflation could rise to as much as 5 percent in the short-term because of higher commodity prices. But Mr. King expects inflation to fall by itself. On Tuesday, he warned that higher interest rates at this point would only exacerbate the economic problems caused by high levels of debt.

The Bank of England committee responsible for setting rates had been split, with some members in favor of an increase in interest rates to tackle rising inflation and some against. One member supported an expansion of the bank’s bond-buying program.

After a temporary boost to the retail sector by the royal wedding last month, Britain’s store owners expect sales to worsen in the coming months, according to a survey by the Confederation of British Industry. Consumer confidence last month dropped to the lowest level since February 2009, as the growth of annual wages in the three months to the end of April was less than a third of the inflation rate.

Tesco, Britain’s largest supermarket chain, last month reported annual earnings that were below some analysts’ estimates, and said sales in Britain fell in the fourth quarter and that the market would remain challenging. Home Retail Group, which owns do-it-yourself and furniture stores, cut its profit forecast for the full year in March because consumers reined in spending.
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