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RTRS: FOREX-Dollar could test resistance, commodities spook bears
 
By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, May 6 (Reuters) - The dollar on Friday held on to most of the chunky gains it made the previous day, with key resistance levels in its grasp as tumbling commodity prices and a series of soft U.S. data prompted profit-taking in higher-yielding currencies.

While commodity prices stabilised somewhat on Friday, they could fall further after upcoming U.S. jobs data, driving more gains in the dollar as the euro and commodity currencies are likely to fall in sympathy with other risk assets.

A weak U.S. jobs reading is likely push the Japanese yen near a seven-week high against the greenback hit on Thursday as it would likely trigger short-covering in the currency, which is often used to fund investments in risk assets due to low interest rates.

Market players also see limited chances of intervention from Japanese authorities, let alone joint action by the Group of Seven (G7) countries, after Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Thursday that current forex moves appear to be different from those seen around the time the G7 intervened in March. [ID:nL3E7G525S]

The dollar index against a basket of currencies stood at 74.03 .DXY =USD, down slightly on the day after having risen 1.5 percent on Thursday, its biggest gain in over six months. It was well off a three-year trough of 72.696, with an immediate target seen at 74.653, the kijun line on the daily Ichimoku chart.

The catalyst for the dollar's rebound was a massive fall in commodities on Thursday. Brent crude oil LCOc1 dived a record $12 a barrel and silver XAG= slumped by nearly $5, its biggest one-day decline since 1980, though they stabilised on Friday.

Many market players had been buying commodities on the view that money-printing by the U.S. Federal Reserve should boost their value, which in turn was fueling inflation worldwide, prompting some central banks to raise rates.

"As some players had built up long positions in the Aussie and the euro, based on the rise in commodities, further falls in commodities could mean more position unwinding in currency markets," said Makoto Noji, currency analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities.

"I do think that what we are seeing is position adjustment rather than the reversal of a trend. But as speculator positions in oil were very big, the impact of a sell-off could be quite large," he added.

The euro was also pressured after ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet did not give any signals on Thursday that there would be a rate rise in June, by steering clear of using the key words "strong vigilance" in his comments on inflation.

The currency stabilised around $1.4545 EUR= after shedding more than 2 percent to as low as $1.4510 on Thursday, its lowest in over a week.

For now the euro was supported above the kijun line on its daily Ichimoku chart at $1.4501. More support is seen at $1.4490, its low on 26 April and $1.4455, a 61.8 percent retracement of its rally since mid-April.

Some traders think the euro's adjustment may have run its course, after having fallen about 1.7 percent so far this week, which would be its largest weekly loss in four months if the euro remains at the current level by the end of Friday.

Still, a failure to recover above its 20-day moving average at around $1.4580 could make its near-term outlook bearish -- a likely scenario if the U.S. jobs data due later in the day saps investor risk appetite.

Data showed on Thursday the number of Americans filing for jobless aid rose to an eight-month high last week, which came after weaker employment growth in manufacturing and service sectors in April.

TACKLING RESISTANCE

Investor risk aversion is also helping the Japanese yen, although selling from Japanese importers after Japan's Golden Week holidays pushed it back from the seven-week high hit on Thursday.

The dollar rose 0.6 percent to 80.55 yen JPY= in early Friday trade, bouncing from its seven-week low of 79.57 yen and tackling resistance from the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud at 80.493.

"I expect some buying from Japanese at the current dollar level, though I don't see big moves in Asian trade today either ahead of the U.S. Job data," said Teppei Ino, currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

While the yen has risen to levels the Group of Seven (G7) countries jointly intervened to stem the yen's strength in March, many analysts suspect that intervention is less likely this time.

"When they intervened after the earthquake, market volatility was shooting up and there were clearly speculative moves to boost the yen. This time the yen's moves have been moderate, so I don't think they will intervene just because the dollar fell below 80 yen," said Nikko's Noji.

Some traders also noted that there is less incentive for Japan to intervene as exporters do not have that many dollars to sell as exports have fallen due to supply chain problems after the devastating earthquake in March.

Some stop-loss orders are seen at around 79.50 yen and below, which suggests some chance of the dollar's fall accelerating if that level is broken.

The Aussie dollar pared most of its sharp losses made on Thursday with a 1 percent jump after the Reserve Bank of Australia warned on Friday a further rise in interest rates will be needed at some point in order to keep inflation contained. [ID:nL3E7G607H]

The Aussie fetched $1.0725 AUD=D4, off a two-week low of $1.0537 hit on Thursday. Against the yen, it gained about 1.6 percent to 86.30 yen AUDJPY=R, bouncing back from Thursday's five-week low of 84.39 yen.

A Reuters poll showed on Friday that analysts expect the Australian dollar AUD=D4 to hang on above parity against the U.S. dollar over the next year helped by speculation that domestic rates, already among the highest in the developed world, may head even higher. [ID:nL3E7F60BV] (Additional contribution from Reuters FX analysts Krishna Kumar in Sydney and Rick Lloyd in Singapore; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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