BLBG: Commodities Gain, Snapping Five-Day Slump; Stocks, Euro Advance
Commodities rebounded from the biggest weekly slump since 2008 and U.S. stock-index futures gained as concerns over the strength of the global recovery eased. The euro rose on prospects the region’s debt crisis won’t keep the European Central Bank from increasing interest rates further.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials jumped 1.2 percent as of 4 p.m. in Tokyo after an 11 percent drop last week. Oil and silver futures snapped five days of losses, and lead added 1.9 percent. The euro climbed 0.7 percent to $1.4409. Australia’s dollar also appreciated. Treasuries fell, snapping a seven-day winning streak. Futures on the S&P 500 Index advanced 0.5 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.2 percent.
Last week’s commodities rout knocked off $99 billion of market value, driving out speculators and prompting Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to predict a possible recovery. Data last week showed U.S. payrolls increased by more than economists had forecast, and separate reports this week may show China’s inflation eased last month while industrial production and retail sales grew at about the same pace as the previous month.
“In the short run, economic activity remains quite positive,” Dominic Schnider, an analyst at UBS AG, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Singapore. “The growth outlook in the near term warrants that you hold or buy some commodities.”
Oil, Silver
Crude for June delivery rose 1.9 percent to $98.98 a barrel in New York, after losing 15 percent last week, the most since the period ended December 2008. Oil’s 14-day relative strength index, a measure of how rapidly prices are rising or falling, dropped to 29 after last week’s slump, the lowest in almost a year. Readings of 30 and below are a sign that an asset’s price has fallen too fast and is poised to reverse course. Brent crude oil climbed 1.3 percent to $110.57 a barrel, recovering from a 13 percent weekly slump.
Silver futures advanced as much as 2.9 percent to $36.31 an ounce before trading at $35.97. The metal plunged 27 percent last week after CME Group Inc., the owner of the Comex exchange, increased the cost of making new speculative positions by 84 percent in two weeks. Prices advanced as much as 61 percent to $49.845 an ounce this year.
Lead for three-month delivery rose 1.9 percent to $2,323 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Copper gained 1.1 percent, tin increased 1.2 percent and zinc rallied 0.8 percent. Wheat for July delivery advanced 2 percent to $7.745 a bushel and corn climbed 0.7 percent to $6.9075 a bushel.
Aussie, Yuan
The Australian dollar rose to $1.0762 from $1.07 on May 6 after an industry report showed job advertisements increased for a 12th month in April. New Zealand’s currency strengthened 0.2 percent to 79.26 U.S. cents.
China, the largest importer of Australia’s raw materials, may say on May 11 April that inflation slowed to a 5.2 percent pace from 5.4 percent the previous month. Industrial production grew 14.6 percent after increasing by 14.8 percent the previous month, and retail sales expanded 17.6 percent from 17.4 percent, according to surveys of economists by Bloomberg.
Taiwan’s dollar climbed 0.6 percent to NT$28.60 against the greenback and Malaysia’s ringgit rose 0.3 percent to 2.9875 on speculation China will allow faster yuan appreciation. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will ask China to favor a stronger yuan at an annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Washington today and tomorrow. The yuan was little changed at 6.4935 per dollar, trading near its strongest level since 1993.
ECB Rates
The euro gained to 116.09 yen from 115.44 yen last week, after touching 114.99 in early trading, the weakest since March 29. It sank to $1.4311 on May 6, the lowest since April 19. The yen was little changed at 80.65 per dollar.
“The Greek issue comes and goes and it might push the euro down a little bit this week, but the ECB is still likely to raise interest rates more than the Fed over the next six months,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “I don’t think it’s going to be an extended period of euro weakness.”
Swaps traders are betting the ECB will lift its target rate by 77.9 basis points over the next 12 months, a Credit Suisse AG index showed on May 6. Another index forecasts 27 basis points of tightening by the Federal Reserve for the same period.
Expanding the 110 billion-euro ($158 billion) lifeline Greece received last year may mean that assets or revenue from asset sales are used to secure extra funds, a person with direct knowledge of the situation said. Demanding collateral, an idea floated last year by Finland, may help avoid a political backlash against bailouts.
U.S. Data
Ten-year Treasury yields rose three basis points to 3.18 percent in Tokyo before U.S. reports this week that economists said will show retail sales and the cost of living increased.
Japan’s 10-year bond yields touched a four-month low amid speculation the central bank will ease monetary policy to bolster the nation’s economy. Bank of Japan board members left the door open for more measures to support the economy at a gathering where they unveiled a lending program for companies damaged by a record earthquake, according to minutes of the April 6-7 meeting released today.
The cost of protecting bonds in Asia from non-payment decreased, with the Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment- grade borrowers outside Japan dropping one basis point to 107 basis points, according to Credit Agricole CIB. The Markit iTraxx Australia index declined half a basis point to 107 basis points, Credit Agricole prices show.
MSCI’s Asia Pacific index rebounded from last week’s 1.4 percent decline. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.5 percent and Taiwan’s Taiex index increased 0.7 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index rose 1.3 percent, the region’s second- biggest gain, after the ruling People’s Action Party retained power with 81 out of 87 parliamentary seats after facing the biggest electoral battle.
Cnooc Ltd. (883) gained 1.8 percent and Jiangxi Copper Co. rose 1.5 percent in Hong Kong, pacing an advance among energy and metal companies. Chubu Electric Power Co. dropped 10 percent after Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan asked the utility to shut its Hamaoka nuclear power plant because it may be at risk of being damaged by an earthquake or tsunami.
To contact the reporter on this story: Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net