Prices continue to consolidate below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the May 2nd high at $102.35. A break above this boundary exposes the 50% level at $104.73. Broadly speaking, anything shy of that keeps the overall structure broadly bearish. Near-term support stands at the psychologically significant $100 figure, followed by the 5/6 low at $94.65.
A quiet session is ahead, with futures markets closing early in the US for the Memorial Day holiday. Prices came under pressure overnight, which newswires chalked up to positioning ahead of this week’s packed US economic calendar that threatens to show the world’s top economy is meeting with strong headwinds. Most critically, separate reports are expected to show that growth in the US manufacturing sector slowed for the third consecutive month in May to the weakest pace since October 2010 while the economy added just 185,000 jobs, the least since January.
Indeed, a Citigroup index tracking positive US economic surprises suggests the trend in data releases has been pointing to steadily deterioration. The rapid approach of the expiration of QE2 – set to conclude with the Fed’s final bonds purchase on June 9 – ought to compound downward pressure. As we have suggested repeatedly over recent weeks, the program’s end is likely to precede a rise in US borrowing costs through the second half of the year, which is likely to unleash a short-term unwinding of bets on a range of risky assets (including crude) as well as long-term downward pressure on economic growth when it is already clearly fragile.
Commodities – Energy
Crude Oil Consolidation to Yield to Renewed Selling
Prices continue to consolidate below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the May 2nd high at $102.35. A break above this boundary exposes the 50% level at $104.73. Broadly speaking, anything shy of that keeps the overall structure broadly bearish. Near-term support stands at the psychologically significant $100 figure, followed by the 5/6 low at $94.65.
A quiet session is ahead, with futures markets closing early in the US for the Memorial Day holiday. Prices came under pressure overnight, which newswires chalked up to positioning ahead of this week’s packed US economic calendar that threatens to show the world’s top economy is meeting with strong headwinds. Most critically, separate reports are expected to show that growth in the US manufacturing sector slowed for the third consecutive month in May to the weakest pace since October 2010 while the economy added just 185,000 jobs, the least since January.
Indeed, a Citigroup index tracking positive US economic surprises suggests the trend in data releases has been pointing to steadily deterioration. The rapid approach of the expiration of QE2 – set to conclude with the Fed’s final bonds purchase on June 9 – ought to compound downward pressure. As we have suggested repeatedly over recent weeks, the program’s end is likely to precede a rise in US borrowing costs through the second half of the year, which is likely to unleash a short-term unwinding of bets on a range of risky assets (including crude) as well as long-term downward pressure on economic growth when it is already clearly fragile.
Commodities – Energy
Crude Oil Consolidation to Yield to Renewed Selling
Prices continue to consolidate below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the May 2nd high at $102.35. A break above this boundary exposes the 50% level at $104.73. Broadly speaking, anything shy of that keeps the overall structure broadly bearish. Near-term support stands at the psychologically significant $100 figure, followed by the 5/6 low at $94.65.
A quiet session is ahead, with futures markets closing early in the US for the Memorial Day holiday. Prices came under pressure overnight, which newswires chalked up to positioning ahead of this week’s packed US economic calendar that threatens to show the world’s top economy is meeting with strong headwinds. Most critically, separate reports are expected to show that growth in the US manufacturing sector slowed for the third consecutive month in May to the weakest pace since October 2010 while the economy added just 185,000 jobs, the least since January.
Indeed, a Citigroup index tracking positive US economic surprises suggests the trend in data releases has been pointing to steadily deterioration. The rapid approach of the expiration of QE2 – set to conclude with the Fed’s final bonds purchase on June 9 – ought to compound downward pressure. As we have suggested repeatedly over recent weeks, the program’s end is likely to precede a rise in US borrowing costs through the second half of the year, which is likely to unleash a short-term unwinding of bets on a range of risky assets (including crude) as well as long-term downward pressure on economic growth when it is already clearly fragile.
